The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report saying that overall, China's automobile export performance has shown a strong growth trend since this year. Based on the cost performance advantages of China's independent fuel vehicle brands and the increasing share in markets such as Central and South America/Middle East/Africa, the bank believes that China's fuel vehicle exports will continue to grow. In terms of new energy vehicles, due to European policy disturbances, the growth rate of NEV exports from January to October 2024 was weaker than that of automobile exports as a whole, but the overall scale was still rising.

Localized production will become the main strategy for Chinese car companies to enter the European market in the future. A number of car companies have announced plans to build factories in Europe and have made substantial progress. The bank expects car companies with scale effects and supply chain advantages such as BYD (01211) to still have a competitive advantage, and its factory in Hungary is expected to start production in 2025.

The main views of JBC International are as follows:

In October, China exported 0.59 million vehicles, maintaining a good growth trend; automobile imports continued to decline.

According to the latest data from the Global Automobile Association and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers compiled by the bank, China achieved exports of 0.59 million vehicles in October 2024, or +11%/-3% month-on-month; from January to October 2024, China achieved exports of 5.28 million vehicles, an increase of 25% over the previous year. Interfered with EU policies, exports of new energy vehicles were 1.72 million vehicles, up 15% year on year, lagging behind the overall export growth rate. In terms of imports, China imported 0.044 million vehicles in October, a sharp drop of 45% year on year, down 21% month on month; in January-October, car imports were 0.58 million vehicles, down 9% year on year. Among them, Japan/Germany/United States are still the top three importers, accounting for 30%/28%/16% of total imports, respectively. With the rise of domestic cars and the acceleration of localization of international brands, automobile imports have continued to be sluggish in recent years.

In 2024, demand in the Russian market has basically recovered to the level of 2021, and China's export performance to Russia is strong.

According to data from the European Business Association (AEB), the Russian market sold 0.178 million vehicles in October 2024, +61% year over year; total sales volume in January-October was 1.24 million vehicles, which is close to 1.31 million vehicles in the same period in 2021. The bank expects sales volume in the Russian market to exceed AEB's forecast of 1.45 million vehicles in 2024. China exported 0.11 million vehicles to Russia in October, +11%/-26% month-on-month; in January-October, China exported 0.96 million vehicles to Russia, up 30% year on year, accounting for 18% of total exports. Russia is still the largest exporter of Chinese automobiles. By power type, traditional fuel vehicles are still the main export force in Russia. From January to October, China exported 0.815 million fuel vehicles to Russia, accounting for 98% of total passenger car exports. Under the strong growth rate of the Russian market this year, overall sales volume has returned to the level of 2021, and the market share of Chinese cars in Russia is close to 60%. As Russia's parallel import policy is tightened, the bank believes it is necessary to carefully look at the growth rate of China's exports to Russia in 2025.

Exports to the EU are weakening, but there are signs of easing trade frictions between China and Europe.

In October, China exported 0.093 million vehicles to the EU, down 17% year on year; cumulative exports from January to October were 0.81 million vehicles, which was basically the same as the previous year. Compared to 36% in 2023, the growth rate of exports to the EU has clearly slowed this year. The bank believes this is mainly due to the EU imposing higher tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. Recently, according to Reuters, European Parliament International Trade Commission Chairman Bernd Lange revealed in an interview with German news television that the EU and China are close to reaching a solution to abolish the tariffs imposed on imported electric vehicles imposed on China. The bank sees that China and Europe have a positive attitude towards resolving China's electric vehicle tariffs. It is expected that this trade friction will usher in a turning point in 2025.