While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600639) share price up 24% in a single quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 13%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
While the stock has risen 4.2% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Looking back five years, both Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 10% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 3% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd the TSR over the last 5 years was 3.9%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 0.8%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are potentially serious...
Of course Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.