Jinwu Financial News | According to Huaan Securities Research, Mingchuang Premium (09896) earned 4.52 billion yuan in Q3, yoy +19.3%, basically inline. Adjusted net profit of 0.69 billion yuan (yoy +6.9%), slightly lower than the forecast of 3.4%; domestic Miniso added 135 stores month-on-month in the third quarter, higher than the agreed forecast of 107; overseas business was 1.81 billion yuan (yoy +40%) in the third quarter, slightly higher than the agreed forecast of 1.4%; revenue from the overseas direct sales market increased 55.4% year on year, maintaining a high growth rate; the agency market increased 26.5% year on year, with a growth rate of 12.1 pct month-on-month.
According to the bank, under last year's high base, MINISO's single-digit sales in the same store in China declined. Among them, the average customer unit price was +0.2% year-on-year, and the unit volume fell by mid-single digits year-on-year. According to the company's results for the second quarter, domestic same-store sales revenue for the whole of this year will remain between 98% and 102% of last year's level.
The bank said that the company's Q3 net profit margin was constrained by the increase in upfront costs due to the rapid pace of opening stores in the direct-managed market. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of the direct-run market during the peak overseas consumption season in Q4. There are upfront costs for opening new direct stores overseas, so the overseas direct sales market has dragged down the overall net profit performance to a certain extent. Overseas consumption season will be high in the fourth quarter, and there will also be major new Harry Potter IPs. It is expected that the direct sales market will usher in obvious profit optimization. The estimate expects the company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 to be 17.2/20.6/23.2 billion yuan (previous value 17/20.5/23.5 billion yuan), +24%/+20%/+13% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated to be 2.8/3.3/3.7 billion yuan (previous value 2.8/3.3/3.8 billion yuan), +19%/+17%/+11% YoY, maintaining the “buy” rating.
