他还补充说，① Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton School of Business, expects the s&p 500 index's roi to be in the range of 0 to 10% next year, while technology stocks' roi may remain flat; ② Siegel believes that the technology stocks that drove the rise of the US stock market in the past two years, including amazon, nvidia, and Meta, are beginning to lag behind.
According to Financial Associated Press on December 3 (Editor: Huang Junzhi), the s&p 500 index surged 26% in 2023, and is expected to rise by 27% this year. However, Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton School of Business, one of the world's top business schools, stated on Monday that after two years of strong growth, the roi of the s&p 500 index may not be so "impressive" next year.
In an interview, he stated, "I expect next year will be much calmer. What I mean is, we have experienced two sensational years, 2023 and 2024, so I expect the roi of the s&p 500 index next year to be in the range of 0 to 10%."
He also added that the roi of the dominant technology stocks in the market may "remain flat" next year.
So far this year, the s&p 500 index has accumulated a rise of 27.5%. However, this year's main increase in the US stock market has been driven by the ai craze and large technology stocks such as the magnificent 7. According to Siegel, the performance of the so-called "magnificent 7" companies, including amazon, nvidia, and Meta, is beginning to lag behind.
"Perhaps this time, we will see the stocks that contributed most to the rise of the US stock market over the past two years begin to weaken. If they perform poorly next year, or even really do not grow, it will be difficult for the s&p 500 index to achieve the same gains as in 2023 and 2024," he added.
Coincidentally, bank of america recently also stated that technology stocks may be heading for a cyclical peak. The bank believes that this largely depends on future bond yields, as rising yields may limit risk assets in 2025.
On the other hand, despite technology stocks being a major catalyst for the rise of the s&p 500 index this year, in recent weeks, Trump's re-election as president of the usa has also added a lot of "momentum" to the US stock market.
In fact, since the election on November 5, the small cap e-mini russell 2000 index has risen by 7%, as investors believe that domestic companies will benefit from Trump's promises of deregulation and tax cuts. Traders are also betting that the incoming president will implement market-friendly policies that will boost neglected assets like small cap stocks.
Siegel also stated, "Perhaps the magnificent 7 will not perform well next year, but those relatively undervalued small and medium-sized stocks will eventually have their good days."
However, some market observers are less certain about the small cap stocks' ability to rise further. For example, Capital Economics noted in a report last month that after Trump won the election in 2016, small cap stocks also soared but performed poorly throughout 2017.
