Jinwu Financial News | According to Guoxin Securities Research, Meituan (03690) achieved revenue of 93.58 billion yuan/ +22.4% in the third quarter, achieved net profit of 12.83 billion yuan/ +258.0%, and achieved adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion yuan/ +124.0%; all exceeded Bloomberg's agreed forecasts (revenue/net profit/adjusted profit estimated at 91.99/9.41/11.66 billion yuan). The operating performance was outstanding, mainly from core local commercial revenue Driven by good growth, year-on-year improvement in operating profit margins, and accelerated loss reduction in new businesses.
According to the bank, in the third quarter, the company's new business revenue was 24.2 billions/ +28.9%; operating losses narrowed sharply to 1.03 billion (Q1 and Q2 lost 2.76/1.31 billion each, last year's Q3 loss 5.11 billion), and the operating loss ratio narrowed 23.0 pct to 4.2% year over year. Among them, the bank estimates that Meituan Preferred Q3 loss was reduced to about 1.7 billion yuan, and that the overall profit of other new businesses in Q3 contributed 0.6-0.7 billion. Businesses such as power banks and bicycles are expected to make good profits during the peak summer season, while overseas KeetaQ3 losses are still limited.
The bank said that it synthesized the company's good performance in 2024Q3 but carefully considered the potential drag from subsequent merchant support plans and accelerated overseas expansion. The bank maintained the company's adjusted net profit of 43/52.3/58.7 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding to a PE valuation of 22/18/16x. Expansions such as continuous improvement in online penetration, expansion of the full retail range, and active decline have helped the platform grow and resilient, and the company's operations have been continuously verified as business integration improves quality and efficiency. Although the company's recent increase in innovation support subsidies for merchants and the possibility of speeding up overseas expansion may be slightly disrupted, the bank believes it will help its platform ecosystem to grow healthily and sustainably over a long period of time and expand more room for growth. If consumption recovers steadily in the future, the company's performance is expected to further accelerate growth and maintain a “superior to market” rating next year.
