Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 27% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 20%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Wynn Resorts moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
The modest 1.0% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 8.4% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Wynn Resorts is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Wynn Resorts stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Wynn Resorts the TSR over the last 5 years was -18%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Wynn Resorts shareholders are up 16% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 3% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Wynn Resorts better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Wynn Resorts you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.
Of course Wynn Resorts may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.