孙立坚表示：我国仍有很大降息空间，降准空间也同样存在。当前的问题是结构性失衡，资金进不到消费和投资领域，反而越来越多的出现在了储蓄中。On December 3rd, the second season of the "Great Power · Economy" series event, jointly created by Orient Securities and Sina Finance, took place at Fudan University's School of Economics, discussing the "Chinese economy from a global perspective." Professor Sun Lijian from Fudan University's School of Economics and Director of the Fudan Finance Research Center shared the impact of the long cycle low valley of the global economy on the ecological environment and consumer investment, and explored the question of whether "China can stand out in 2025."
Sun Lijian stated: The operation of the global financial industry follows a cyclical trend, and China is no exception. When the economy is in decline, it naturally emphasizes risk control, reducing investments and expenditures. However, if not handled properly, the characteristics of financial cycles can have significant impacts. Through analyzing data from the 1980s to 2023, he pointed out that the previously unconsolidated economic growth converged significantly after 2000, including in China.
"The world has entered an era of low interest rates and low inflation. Many studies have found that the growth of money and inflation rates from 1990 to 2019 is no longer a monetary phenomenon emphasized by the monetary mainstream, but rather exhibits a completely negative correlation; the more money grows, the greater the pressure of economic deflation," he said.
Sun Lijian stated: There is still significant room for interest rate cuts in our country, and there is also room for reducing the reserve requirement ratio. The current issue is structural imbalance, as funds are not reaching the consumer and investment sectors but are instead increasingly appearing in savings.
"Recently, the country has also begun to pay attention to addressing the issues of asset prices in the capital markets to remedy today’s debt problems and pressures," said Sun Lijian. Previously, we aimed to resolve economic growth first and then tackle income distribution. However, "the price restoration that began at the end of September is key to market confidence, leading to a cycle, creating space for economic growth, ensuring a very favorable market environment for structural adjustment, and subsequently addressing secondary income distribution, thus solving the problem of income distribution inequality caused by globalization." (Luo Ning)
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