Shanghai DZH Limited (SHSE:601519) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 35% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 48%.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Shanghai DZH is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 30.2x, considering almost half the companies in China's Capital Markets industry have P/S ratios below 7.6x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
What Does Shanghai DZH's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
For example, consider that Shanghai DZH's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shanghai DZH's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Shanghai DZH?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Shanghai DZH's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 6.8% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 6.2% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
In light of this, it's alarming that Shanghai DZH's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Shares in Shanghai DZH have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
We've established that Shanghai DZH currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Shanghai DZH.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Shanghai DZH, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.