Investors More Bullish on Beyondsoft (SZSE:002649) This Week as Stock Rallies 5.6%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Five Years
Investors More Bullish on Beyondsoft (SZSE:002649) This Week as Stock Rallies 5.6%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Five Years
Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the Beyondsoft Corporation (SZSE:002649) share price is up 38% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 20% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 5.8% in the last year, including dividends.
一般来说,主动选股的目标是寻找能够提供超出市场平均收益的公司。虽然主动选股涉及风险(并且需要多元化),但也可以提供超额回报。例如,博彦科技(SZSE:002649)在过去五年中股价上涨了38%,明显超过市场大约20%的回报(不考虑分红派息)。然而,最近的回报并没有那么令人印象深刻,过去一年仅回报5.8%,包括分红派息。
Since it's been a strong week for Beyondsoft shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.
由于这对博彦科技的股东来说是一个强劲的一周,让我们来看一下长期基本面的趋势。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
在他的文章《格雷厄姆和道德斯维尔的超级投资者》中,沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价并不总是理性反映公司价值的方式。检查市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方式是查看公司股价与每股收益(EPS)之间的互动。
Beyondsoft's earnings per share are down 9.5% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
尽管在过去五年中股价表现强劲,博彦科技的每股收益仍然下降了9.5%。
Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.
基本上,投资者似乎并未关注每股收益。因为每股收益似乎与股价不匹配,所以我们将查看其他指标。
The modest 0.2% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 14% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Beyondsoft is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
温和的0.2%分红派息收益率不太可能支撑股价。相比之下,14%的年营业收入增长可能被视为博彦科技正在增长的证据,这是一个真正的积极信号。在这种情况下,公司可能正在牺牲当前的每股收益以推动增长。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利(随时间变化)(单击以查看准确的数字)。

Take a more thorough look at Beyondsoft's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
通过这份关于博彦科技资产负债表的免费报告,更全面地了解其财务健康状况。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Beyondsoft the TSR over the last 5 years was 50%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股价回报,投资者还应考虑总股东回报率(TSR)。TSR是一种回报计算,考虑了现金分红的价值(假设任何获得的分红均被再投资)以及任何折扣资本筹集和分拆的计算价值。因此,对于那些支付慷慨分红的公司而言,TSR通常比股价回报高得多。我们注意到,在过去5年中,博彦科技的TSR为50%,这比上述的股价回报更好。而且,毫无悬念的是,分红派息在很大程度上解释了这种差异!
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
Beyondsoft shareholders gained a total return of 5.8% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 8% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Beyondsoft .
博彦科技的股东在这一年里获得了总回报5.8%。但这个回报低于市场。值得庆幸的是,长期回报(运行在每年约8%,超过五年半)看起来更好。考虑到市场持续良好的反应,这可能是一个值得关注的业务。虽然值得考虑市场条件对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他因素更为重要。为此,你应该注意我们发现的一个警告信号与博彦科技有关。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
当然,您可能通过在其他地方寻找会找到一笔极好的投资。因此,请查看我们预计会增长收入的公司免费名单。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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