今年投资者蜂拥进入人工智能股票市场，可能过度高估了AI技术的短期潜力，增加了股价“回调”的风险。Vanguard economist Joe Davis stated that the market has overestimated the short-term potential of AI technology, with current valuation levels approaching those of 1997, increasing the risk of a stock price "pullback". It is difficult to determine the timing of the pullback, and it is unknown whether it will start in 2025.
The ai boom is driving the U.S. stock market higher, but this frenzy may be brewing a potential market correction.
On Wednesday, Joe Davis, the chief economist of Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset management company, issued a warning:
This year, investors are flocking to the ai stock market and may have overestimated the short-term potential of ai technology, increasing the risk of a price "correction". The timing of the correction is difficult to determine, and it is unknown whether it will begin in 2025.
Vanguard's cautious remarks have further intensified the heated debate among investors: whether stocks that have surged in recent months due to the ai wave are overvalued.
Davis further pointed out:
Currently, the market's expectations for the impact of ai have reached about a 90% probability, while he believes the actual likelihood of ai surpassing the influence of personal computers is only 60% to 65%.
He compared the current economic situation to 1992, while market valuations are closer to levels seen in 1997, implying that there may be a bubble risk in the current market.
Stocks related to ai have become the main driving force behind the rise of the US stock market, with the s&p 500 index up 27% this year, of which about one fifth of the increase comes from the contribution of chip manufacturer nvidia. As the core chip supplier for ai, nvidia's stock price has skyrocketed more than 180% this year. In addition, other technology giants have also benefited immensely from betting on ai, with OpenAI's valuation reaching astonishing heights.
Although ai technology may bring transformative effects in the next few years, Davis believes that:
Currently, companies most closely related to the ai investment boom may not become the ultimate biggest beneficiaries. The real beneficiaries may be non-technology industry companies that actually apply ai technology, such as hospitals, utilities, and financial companies.
