中金发布研报称，展望2025年，该行预计煤炭需求平稳增长，同比+2.3%。原因是，从结构上看，该行认为新旧能源的结构转型非一朝一夕，短期内煤炭仍将发挥能源基础保障作用。总量上看，市场预期在传统的钢铁、水泥等高耗能行业需求放缓下，能源需求或受较大拖累，但该行认为能源需求弹性系数在短期内或保持相对高位，主要是新能源等新质生产力迅速发展下，其对能源的需求也并不低，同时终端用能的电气化水平提高也在促进需求提升。因此，煤炭需求仍有望保持较强的增长动能。Coal stocks strengthened during the trading day, as of the time of publication, China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 3.65% to HK$9.65; China Shenhua Energy (01088) rose by 3.36% to HK$33.8; SouthGobi (01878) rose by 2.61% to HK$3.93; China Qinfa (00866) rose by 2.17% to HK$1.41.
According to the Wise Wealth APP, coal stocks strengthened during the trading day, as of the time of publication, China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 3.65% to HK$9.65; China Shenhua Energy (01088) rose by 3.36% to HK$33.8; SouthGobi (01878) rose by 2.61% to HK$3.93; China Qinfa (00866) rose by 2.17% to HK$1.41.
Jiayin International released a research report stating that driven by the seasonal increase in heating demand and the reduction of inventory days of China Power Company, the bank expects thermal coal prices in the fourth quarter to gradually recover by the end of the year. For next year, based on improved economic conditions and nationwide coal production control, the bank expects thermal coal prices to moderately rise by 5%, reaching RMB 905 per ton. Assuming that restrictions on coal production in China remain in place, the bank expects Chinese thermal coal supply to increase by 3.4% year-on-year, mainly driven by a 10% year-on-year increase in imports. Given the current mismatch between supply and demand for thermal coal, a supply gap of about 0.14 billion tons is calculated, which is higher than the 77 million ton gap in 2024.
CICC released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2025, the bank expects steady growth in coal demand, up by +2.3% year-on-year. The reason is that from a structural perspective, the bank believes that the transformation of the structure from old to new energy is not an overnight process, and in the short term, coal will continue to play a role as an energy foundation. In terms of overall quantity, while the market expects a slowdown in energy demand in traditional high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement, energy demand may face significant drag. However, the bank believes that the short-term elasticity coefficient of energy demand may remain relatively high, mainly due to the rapid development of new quality productivity such as new energy, which also has significant demand for energy. Additionally, the increased electrification level of end-use energy is also promoting demand growth. Therefore, coal demand is expected to maintain strong growth momentum.
