On December 4th, according to Caixin (Reporter Zhou Xiaoya), the familiar QDII funds are frequently subject to purchase limits and premium situations occur again.

On December 4th, Morgan Fund issued an announcement regarding the adjustment of large purchase amounts, periodic fixed investments, and conversion inflows of Morgan S&P 500 Index Fund (QDII). Starting from December 5th, the purchase limit of the fund will be lowered to 100 yuan, 10 US dollars.

This adjustment was made just 3 trading days after the fund's last announcement. Morgan Fund stated that the reason was to ensure the stable operation of the fund and to protect the interests of fund shareholders.

In addition to the adjustment of purchase limits, there have been over 15 relevant announcements about QDII funds warning of risks since December. By the end of today's trading, 7 cross-border ETFs had a premium discount rate of over 4%, with many products warning of high premium risks for nearly 10 consecutive trading days.

In the past week, purchase limits have been adjusted twice.

Specifically, Morgan S&P 500 Index Fund (QDII) sets a daily cumulative purchase limit of 100 yuan (inclusive) for RMB share category of an individual fund account for daily purchase, periodic fixed investments, and conversion inflows. It sets a daily cumulative purchase limit of 10 US dollars (inclusive) for the USD share category of an individual fund account. The fund manager reserves the right to reject excess amounts.

For the single-day purchase and periodic fixed investment amounts, the daily cumulative purchase limit for the RMB share category of a single fund account is set at 100 yuan (inclusive). The daily cumulative purchase limit for the USD share category of a single fund account is set at 10 US dollars (inclusive). The fund manager reserves the right to reject excess amounts.

In fact, last Friday, the fund also announced that starting from December 2, the purchase limit was lowered from 0.01 million yuan, $1000 in early November to 1000 yuan, $100.

In addition to Morgan S&P 500, Huaxia S&P 500 ETF's feeder fund also announced the suspension of purchase on November 29. Tianhong S&P 500, starting from November 19, lowered the purchase limit from the previous 0.2 million yuan to 0.02 million yuan.

Invesco Asia Income Bonds (QDII) also recently increased purchase restrictions, first restricting applications for single institutional clients in the fund's RMB E-class shares, with a cumulative daily amount exceeding 0.01 million yuan (excluding 0.01 million yuan) on November 28.

Then, starting from today (December 4), the fund's RMB A and C-class shares daily cumulative purchase limit was reduced from 0.01 million yuan to 1000 yuan. They are suspending applications and regular investment business for individual fund accounts with daily cumulative amounts exceeding 1000 yuan (excluding 1000 yuan) for the fund's RMB A and C-class shares. If the daily cumulative application amount exceeds 1000 yuan for a single fund account, they reserve the right to reject it.

Invesco Global Bonds (QDII) has suspended large purchases for single institutional clients with daily cumulative amounts exceeding 0.01 million yuan in the fund's RMB E-class shares starting from today.

More than 15 risk warnings have been issued since December.

During the frequent reductions in purchase limits, onshore QDII funds have been warning about premium risks. Incomplete statistics from Caijing reporters show that in the past 4 days of December, various funds have issued over 15 relevant notices.

Huaxia S&P 500 ETF, Invesco Great Wall S&P Consumer Staples ETF, E Fund Crude Oil ETF, and GTE S&P 500 ETF all issued premium risk warnings yesterday.

Among them, Huaxia s&p 500 etf has been continuously warning of premium risks for 8 consecutive trading days since after-hours on November 24th, during which the IOPV premium discount rate of the fund has been maintained at 5% or more. Guotai s&p 500 etf has recently issued 7 warnings of premium risks, with the premium discount rate exceeding 10% during this period.

Invesco Great Wall s&p csi cons stap etf has recently issued a concentrated release of 6 premium risk notices, and while warning of risks, trading suspension has also occurred, during which the premium rate of the fund once reached as high as 19.99%.

As of the close of today, the premium rate of Invesco Great Wall s&p csi cons stap etf is 9.79%, and Guotai s&p 500 ETF has also exceeded 9%. Bosera Fund and Huaxia Fund's s&p 500 etfs also have premiums exceeding 5%.

Accompanying the high premiums is active trading. As of today's close, Invesco Great Wall s&p csi cons stap etf has traded over 0.6 billion yuan. The fund's trading volume once exceeded 2 billion yuan on November 28th, reaching its peak since listing; Bosera s&p 500 etf's trading volume today has also exceeded 0.3 billion yuan, with daily trading volume recently exceeding 1 billion yuan.

The investment enthusiasm persists and is related to the continued strength of the s&p 500 market. Last week, U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the s&p 500 index hitting a new all-time high. The related s&p 500 etfs have returned over 6% in the past month, while the s&p csi cons stap etfs have surged by more than 10%.

Looking ahead, Bosera Fund recently pointed out that after thorough consideration in the previous period, assets have entered a relatively calm phase, awaiting new catalysts. U.S. inflation expectations have eased, interest rate cut expectations have risen, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting has increased from 53% to 66%, with rate cuts likely in March and September in 2025, each by 25bps.

Recently, Dongfang Futures Research Institute analyzed that as of December 3rd, 492 companies in the s&p 500 have released their 2024 third-quarter reports, accounting for 97.8%. Third-quarter s&p 500 EPS increased by 5.6% year-on-year, down from the previous quarter's 11.8% increase, maintaining positive growth for five consecutive quarters.

The research institute analyzed that current corporate profitability is good, and profit recovery still has a certain degree of sustainability. Since November, the market's profit expectations for the full year of 2024 have bottomed out and risen, maintaining a relatively optimistic outlook for profit growth in the next year.

From a valuation perspective, the current level has already fully reflected the future growth, with a current dynamic PE ratio of 22 times, close to a 20-year high. Short-term economic resilience and optimistic expectations for future policy effects support the valuation. However, excessive market expectations may limit future upside potential.