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美联储主席鲍威尔12月4日讲话要点总结

Summary of remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on December 4th.

Global market report ·  Dec 5, 2024 03:55
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the new york times DealBook conference on Wednesday. This appearance comes two weeks before the Fed announces its interest rate decision and is also Powell's last public appearance prior to this.

1. Monetary policy over time, the Federal Reserve will move towards a more neutral interest rate. Although downside risks are lower than expected, the Fed can remain patient and cautiously move towards a neutral rate.

2. Independence independence gives us the ability to make the best decisions. There is broad support in the usa Congress for the independence of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that (the individual/Fed) will maintain a good relationship with the government that is to be formed by elected President Trump in the future.

3. Inflation has not yet achieved the inflation target but is making progress. The rising price levels are causing dissatisfaction.

4. Employment the number of jobs in the usa is good, but low-income groups are under pressure.

5. Trump tariffs risk it is unclear how large the scope of Trump's tariffs will be, when they will be implemented, and how long they will last. Trump’s ideas for tariffs have not yet materialized, and the Fed cannot formulate corresponding policies. We are modeling, paying attention to, and evaluating tariff ideas. The Fed does not have its own views on immigration issues or tariff ideas.

6. Financial stability the usa Treasury is responsible for the value of the dollar (as a reserve currency). The Fed is concerned about the relationship between cryptos and the banking system.

7. Debt sustainability and fiscal usa debt are on an unsustainable path. The Federal Reserve has never discussed the federal government's debt level when formulating FOMC monetary policy. We are far removed from the fiscal functions of the Treasury.

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