Zhitong Finance APP learned that Haitong Securities released a research report stating that the industrialization of sodium batteries is imminent, with frequent news of new product orders. Among them, polyanion batteries, due to their low cost, long cycle life, and good safety, are expected to break through in the energy storage field. Sodium batteries, with their excellent low-temperature performance, are helping electric vehicles overcome performance bottlenecks in cold conditions. Recently, companies in the positive electrode of sodium batteries have won substantial orders, and leading energy storage companies such as BYD and Huawei have made new progress in sodium batteries. It is expected that related companies in the sodium battery industry chain will benefit.

The main points of Haitong Securities are as follows:

The industrialization of sodium batteries is imminent, and the application of polyanion batteries in energy storage is attracting attention.

Sodium batteries are divided into layered, Prussian blue, and polyanion types. In 2021, the price of lithium carbonate surged, leading to a hot research on the substitution of sodium batteries for lithium batteries in power applications. However, with subsequent declines in the price of lithium carbonate, the industrialization of sodium batteries slowed down. But since the beginning of this year, the industry has seen an accelerated process of industrialization of sodium batteries, mainly due to:

(1) Energy Storage: Polyanion batteries, with their low cost, long cycle life, and good safety, are expected to make a breakthrough in the energy storage field. According to the Starting Point Sodium Electricity public account, if future lithium prices fluctuate around 0.08-0.15 million yuan/ton, the cost of lithium iron phosphate cell will be approximately 0.35 yuan/Wh, while layered oxide will be economically pressured. However, the polyanion route still has a cost advantage, with a projected cost of 0.25 yuan/Wh after mass production, and a cycle life of up to 10,000 times (currently over 5000 times).

(2) Power: Sodium batteries, with their excellent low-temperature performance, are helping electric vehicles overcome performance bottlenecks in cold conditions, mainly represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. According to the Chief Scientist of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., Wu Kai, the second-generation sodium battery is expected to be launched in the market in 2025, achieve large-scale production in 2027, mainly helping to enhance low-temperature performance (previously using a sodium-lithium mixed AB scheme). At the same time, Zeng Yuqun also predicts that in the future, the second-generation sodium-ion battery is expected to replace 20-30% of lithium iron phosphate in small or short-haul vehicles in the initial stage.

Recently, there have been many breakthroughs in the sodium industry.

United Kingdom Sodium secures a substantial sodium cathode order, recognized by a leading sodium battery company.

According to the United Kingdom Sodium New Energy Official Account on November 25, United Kingdom Sodium New Energy successfully secured a substantial order for a certain sodium-ion battery company's poly-anion-type composite iron phosphate sodium cathode material, exceeding a thousand tons. According to the statistics of the Starting Point Research Institute, as of early August 2024, approximately 8800 tons of poly-anion cathode material capacity has been built nationwide. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the poly-anion cathode material industry will have built at least 0.02 million tons of dedicated capacity.

Currently, mainstream poly-anion cathode material companies have achieved production on a scale of thousands of tons per line. It is expected that next year will usher in an era of tens of thousands of tons per line, as the industrialization of cathode material continues to advance, which will also accelerate the cost reduction of sodium batteries.

BYD launches large-scale sodium energy storage products, expected to be listed in Q3 2025.

According to the Starting Point Sodium-ion Battery Official Account on November 29, Wang Kai, the head of BYD's energy storage in the UK and Ireland, stated that BYD will launch a sodium-ion battery storage system named 'MCCube-SIBESS,' the world's first high-performance sodium-ion battery energy storage system.

The energy storage system has a capacity of 2.3MWh (20-foot container, currently lithium battery 20-foot container around 5MWh, with an energy density about half that of lithium battery storage), and will mainly be used on the grid side. The product is expected to be launched in China in Q3 2025, with a price per kilowatt hour comparable to iron phosphate lithium batteries. Currently, although the cost of BYD's sodium batteries is still higher than that of iron phosphate lithium batteries, it is expected that the Bill of Materials (BOM) cost in 2025 is expected to be on par with iron phosphate lithium batteries, and in the long term it can be reduced to less than 70% of the iron phosphate lithium price.

BYD's sodium battery technology roadmap: In terms of technology, BYD's cathode material adopts a parallel strategy of layered oxides and poly-anion systems. In the layered oxide system, the plan is to achieve an energy density of 160Wh/kg and 4500 cycles by 2024; to achieve an energy density of 180Wh/kg and 6000 cycles by 2025. For the poly-anion system, BYD plans to achieve an energy density of 110Wh/kg and 6000 cycles by 2023; to achieve an energy density of 130Wh/kg and 8000 cycles by 2024; to achieve an energy density of 150Wh/kg and 10000 cycles by 2025.

Huawei has announced a sodium battery patent.

According to the Start Point Sodium Battery Official Account, on November 22, a patent named 'Electrolyte Additives and Preparation Methods, Electrolytes and Sodium-ion Batteries' was published. The applicants for this patent are Huawei and Zhuhai Saewe, with the application date of May 19, 2023. According to the Start Point Research Institute, benefiting from the growth in sodium batteries, the shipment of sodium battery electrolytes from January to September 2024 was 3,581 tons (Zhuhai Saewe ranked first), a year-on-year increase of 255.6%. It is predicted that by 2030, the market size of sodium battery electrolytes will reach 1.83 million tons.

Investment recommendation: Recommended to pay attention to Tongxing Environmental Protection (003027.SZ), Malion New Materials (300586.SZ), Shanghai Pret Composites (002324.SZ), Veken Technology.,Ltd. (600152.SH), Zhenhua New Materials (688707.SH), Fujian Yuanli Active Carbon (300174.SZ), Betteray (835185.BJ), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology (688005.SH), Pawa Shares (688184.SH) and Jiangsu Transimage Technology (002866.SZ).

Risk warning: The industrialization progress of sodium batteries may fall short of expectations, and the cost reduction of sodium batteries may not meet expectations.