报告中称，今年11月重型卡车销售止跌，国内销售显著回升，同比增长13%，按季增长23%，液化天然气(LNG)卡车销售也按季增长13%。展望未来，CVWorld预测12月的批发销售将达到7.5万-8万辆，同比增长40%-50%。随着补贴政策于2024年12月31日结束，代表2024年的总销售可能录90万辆，接近2023年的91.1万辆。虽然市场对2025年重型卡车需求的预期仍然谨慎，但该行认为中国IV标准重型卡车的扩大补贴将为其销量带来增长空间。JPMorgan believes that the expanded subsidies for China IV standard heavy trucks will create growth opportunities for sales.
According to Zhito Financial APP, JPMorgan has released a research report stating that Weichai Power (02338) is currently attractive in valuation, thus maintaining a "shareholding" rating but has lowered the target price of listed in hong kong shares from 22 HKD by 13.6% to 19 HKD, and the target price of A-share from 24 RMB to 21 RMB.
The bank expects that Weichai Power's earnings in the fourth quarter of 2024 will grow by 12% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the fourth quarter. The bank anticipates that the pre-tax profit margin for 2024 will reach 8%, and 9% in 2025. The bank expects that the domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks (HDT) from Weichai Power in 2025-26 will be strongly supported by a replacement cycle and policy support, as well as the company’s strong cash flow and considerable cash reserves. The company is also implementing measures to enhance shareholder returns, such as increasing the dividend payout ratio.
The report states that the sales of heavy trucks stopped declining in November this year, with domestic sales significantly rebounding by 13% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter, while sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks also saw a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase. Looking ahead, CVWorld forecasts that wholesale sales in December will reach 0.075 million to -0.08 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40%-50%. With the subsidy policy ending on December 31, 2024, total sales for 2024 might record 0.9 million units, close to 0.911 million units in 2023. Although the market has cautious expectations for heavy truck demand in 2025, the bank believes that the expanded subsidies for China IV standard heavy trucks will create growth opportunities for sales.
