国金证券认为，保险行业短期预计仍以贝塔驱动的行情为主，开门红NBV有望实现双位数增长将是超额收益的重要支撑。居民风险偏好整体偏低叠加储蓄需求强劲，且预定利率再次下调后，储蓄险的收益率仍优于银行定期存款且具备长期保值增值优势，预计销售端良好态势仍将延续，预计25年开门红新单保费仍有望实现正增长，NBV有望实现双位数增长。Mainland insurance companies collectively rose. As of the time of this report, new china life insurance (01336) rose by 4.97%, trading at 25.35 Hong Kong dollars; china pacific insurance (02601) rose by 4.43%, trading at 25.9 Hong Kong dollars; china life insurance (02628) rose by 3.6%, trading at 15.52 Hong Kong dollars; ping an insurance (02318) rose by 2.19%, trading at 46.7 Hong Kong dollars.
According to Zhito Finance APP, mainland insurance companies collectively rose. As of the time of this report, new china life insurance (01336) rose by 4.97%, trading at 25.35 Hong Kong dollars; china pacific insurance (02601) rose by 4.43%, trading at 25.9 Hong Kong dollars; china life insurance (02628) rose by 3.6%, trading at 15.52 Hong Kong dollars; ping an insurance (02318) rose by 2.19%, trading at 46.7 Hong Kong dollars.
China merchants pointed out that as of the end of November, the leading insurance companies have gradually launched their 2025 New Year products, with layouts in both bonus-type increased insured life insurance and bonus-type annuities. At the same time, considering that insurance companies may differentiate bonuses in terms of channel commissions and customer interests to guide team sales and shifts in customer needs, it is expected that the proportion of new business value (NBV) from bonus insurance in leading insurance companies' 2025 New Year products may approach half.
Sinolink believes that the insurance industry is expected to remain primarily driven by beta in the short term, with the NBV for New Year products likely achieving double-digit growth, which will be an important support for excess returns. The overall risk preference of residents is low, combined with strong savings demand, and after the scheduled interest rates have been lowered again, the yields of savings insurance still outperform bank fixed deposits and have long-term value preservation and appreciation advantages. It is expected that the good sales momentum will continue, with new single premium income from the New Year products likely achieving positive growth, and NBV is expected to achieve double-digit growth.
