消息方面，国际油价近期持续表现疲软。以布伦特石油期货为例，该期货从自12月4日以来累计跌幅超4%。① What is the impact of international oil prices on shipping stocks? ② Why are institutions optimistic about aviation stock performance in 2025?
Financial Services Association, December 6 (Editor: Hu Jiarong) Benefiting from an overnight drop in international oil prices, Hong Kong aviation stocks strengthened. As of press release, Beijing Capital Airport (00694.HK), Air China (00753.HK), China Southern Airlines (01055.HK), and China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) rose 6.69%, 5.98%, 5.90%, and 3.73% respectively.
Note: Airline stock performance
In terms of news, international oil prices have continued to weaken recently. Take Brent oil futures, which have accumulated a decline of more than 4% since December 4.
Note: The performance of Brent oil futures since mid-November
In fact, lower oil prices are beneficial to shipping stocks. Fuel costs account for a large part of the aviation industry's operating costs. The fall in international oil prices directly reduced fuel costs for airlines and increased profitability.
CITIC Construction Investment points out that key driving variables in the aviation industry include flight volume, passenger occupancy, ticket prices, fuel prices, and exchange rates. The bank pointed out that demand may benefit from fiscal policies, costs may benefit from falling oil prices, and the exchange rate is still under pressure.
Agencies are optimistic that shipping stocks will reverse in 2025
In addition to the favorable decline in oil prices, Huatai Securities believes that aviation, as a procyclical sector, may boost civil aviation demand marginally by driving macroeconomic recovery, and predicts a 7.4% year-on-year increase in 2025, creating a gap between supply and demand.
CITIC Securities expressed a similar view. Looking ahead to 2025, positive factors such as return to normal domestic revenue management, construction of international hubs, and falling fuel costs will continue to accumulate. Unlike in the past, the aviation cycle with traditional “post-cycle” performance is expected to advance. The biggest difference in this upward cycle is that the industry has experienced 5 consecutive years of low aircraft introduction. The growth rate of introduction in 2020-23 is 8.3 percent lower than the compound growth rate in 2010-18.
The bank is looking forward to the easing of aviation fuel pressure in 2025 and the release of airline profits. Domestic flight revenue management is expected to return to normal in 2025, and positive policy signals such as continued expansion of visa-free countries have continued recently. The 2025 Spring Festival travel season is expected to be a litmus test for the aviation cycle.
