新能源车方面，该行预计2025年中国新能源车零售和批发销量均年增22%，到1335万辆和1490万辆，新能源零售市占率达57.8%。欧洲由于碳排放标准收紧，2025年新能源车的销售或超预期。同时预期2025年自主品牌在中国新能源车和燃油车市场的市占率都将进一步提升。CMB International expects that by 2025, the retail and wholesale sales of electric vehicles in china will increase by 22% annually, reaching 13.35 million units and 14.9 million units respectively.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, CMB International has released a research report stating that by 2025, electric vehicles are expected to occupy a mainstream position in most price ranges and models, which means cost-effectiveness and brand strength will become key factors. Investors may pay more attention to corporate profitability next year. Among vehicle manufacturers, Geely Automobile (00175) and Xpeng Motors (09868) are preferred, as their recent new models may have found the key to success. The car service sector recommends Tuhu-W (09690) due to its business model expected to benefit from consumer downgrade.
The report states that due to the overdraw caused by this year's replacement policy, CMB International expects that by 2025, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in china will decrease by 2% annually to 23.08 million units. At the same time, it is expected that with the increase in overseas sales and the help of restocking, the wholesale sales volume of passenger vehicles in china will rise by 3.8% compared to the same period last year.
Regarding electric vehicles, the bank expects that by 2025, the retail and wholesale sales of electric vehicles in china will both increase by 22% annually, reaching 13.35 million units and 14.9 million units, with the retail market share of new energy vehicles reaching 57.8%. In europe, due to tightening carbon emission standards, the sales of electric vehicles may exceed expectations by 2025. It is also expected that by 2025, the market share of domestic brands in both the electric vehicle and rbob gasoline markets in china will further increase.