展望2025年，在债务互换和2025年可能进一步实施财政刺激的背景下，大摩预计集团未来现金回笼情况将有所改善。大摩预计项目管理市场规模到2030年将达到500亿元人民币，且渗透率将不断提高。Damo is optimistic about Greentown Management Holdings (09979)'s asset-light business model with a shareholder return (ROE) of 20% or more.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that it is still optimistic about Greentown Management Holdings (09979)'s asset-light business model with a shareholder return (ROE) of 20% or more. In view of the improvement in the Group's industry momentum, the target price of the stock was raised by 15.4%, from HK$3.18 to HK$3.67, and the rating was upgraded from “synchronizing with the market” to “increasing holdings”.
The bank said that the stock's current price-earnings ratio is 5.7 times, plus a dividend ratio of 40-50%, which means that the dividend ratio for this year and next two years is 7-9%. Cash recovery risks are reduced due to favorable risk-return benefits and increased dividend visibility. Damo believes that Greentown Management Holdings is a potential dual beneficiary of government debt conversion and property market stimulus. Due to the improved cash recovery situation and a defensive business model with a shareholder return of over 20% and a dividend ratio of 7-9%, Damo believes that risk and return are biased towards the upward trend.
Looking ahead to 2025, in the context of debt swaps and possible further fiscal stimulus in 2025, Damo expects the Group's cash return situation to improve in the future. Damo expects the project management market to reach 50 billion yuan by 2030, and the penetration rate will continue to increase.
