该行指出，展望明年，今年9月政治局会议召开以来，宏观政策组合拳相继推出，随着后续促消费、扩内需等政策逐渐发力，国内消费可能迎来加速复苏，尤其是受益于餐饮景气度的回暖，啤酒高端化将迎来新的发展阶段。行业估值处于历史低谷，从长期配置的角度来看已经具备一定安全边际。且国内主要啤酒厂商均进入资本开支末期，稳定的现金流为进一步提高分红奠定了基础。Beer stocks recovered today. As of the time of writing, tsingtao brew (00168) rose by 3.92%, priced at 50.35 Hong Kong dollars; china res beer (00291) rose by 1.95%, priced at 26.2 Hong Kong dollars; bud apac (01876) rose by 1.36%, priced at 7.45 Hong Kong dollars.
According to Zhito Finance APP, beer stocks recovered today. As of the time of writing, tsingtao brew (00168) rose by 3.92%, priced at 50.35 Hong Kong dollars; china res beer (00291) rose by 1.95%, priced at 26.2 Hong Kong dollars; bud apac (01876) rose by 1.36%, priced at 7.45 Hong Kong dollars.
Haitong int'l pointed out that according to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in the third quarter of this year, the cumulative beer production of enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. Combining the third quarterly reports of listed companies, it is inferred that the year-on-year growth rate of industry sales for Q3 2024 continued the trend of single-digit decline seen in Q2, while the increase in ton price has significantly slowed. The fourth quarter is the off-season for beer sales, mainly focused on digesting inventory, and the annual performance expectations have basically settled.
The bank pointed out that looking ahead to next year, since the Politburo meeting in September this year, a series of macro policy combinations have been launched. As policies promoting consumer spending and expanding domestic demand gradually take effect, domestic consumption may welcome an accelerated recovery, especially benefiting from the rebound in dining conditions. The premiumization of beer will enter a new stage of development. The industry's valuation is at a historical low, which already provides a certain safety margin from a long-term allocation perspective. Moreover, major domestic beer manufacturers have all entered the late capital expenditure phase, and stable cash flow lays the foundation for further increasing dividends.