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观点综述:联储官员强调降息需谨慎 美国就业市场仍然健康

Summary of views: Federal Reserve officials emphasize that interest rate cuts should be approached with caution as the usa job market remains healthy.

Global Market Report ·  Dec 6 14:40

After the new non-farm payroll data was released on Friday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the employment market in the usa still looks healthy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also mentioned that, despite a series of fluctuating employment data in the usa, the labor market seems fundamentally stable. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack remarked that decision-makers are "at or near" the stage where they should slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, citing strong economic conditions and persistent high inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman also reiterated her inclination to cautiously lower interest rates.

The president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve stated that the labor market remains in good shape.

"The labor market is still in good condition," said Daly at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. "As job openings increase, there is approximately one job vacancy for every unemployed person. So it's a balanced labor market."

The Fed president also indicated that she expects the Fed to wait and determine the net impact of several policies introduced by the incoming government before adjusting mmf policy.

Cleveland Fed President: The Fed is at or near the stage of slowing down interest rate cuts.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack agreed with market expectations that there will be another rate cut between now and the end of January, and several more cuts accumulated by the end of next year.

"It is necessary to maintain a moderately restrictive mmf policy stance while the policy might not be far from neutral, to balance between the two. I believe we have reached or are close to the stage where we should slow down the pace of interest rate cuts," Hammack said.

Federal Reserve official Goolsbee stated that the labor market in the usa still looks stable.

On Friday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee pointed out at a Q&A session held in Chicago that, based on the average non-farm employment data from recent months, "I feel like this is in a sustainable and fully employed environment."

He refused to disclose whether he plans to support a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting but reiterated that he expects rates to be "lower in a year."

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: Anti-inflation progress may have stalled, need to proceed with interest rate cuts cautiously.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that the upside risks of price growth remain "prominent." She pointed out that progress on inflation seems to have stagnated and expressed that she currently still finds inflation more concerning than the labor market.

"I tend to cautiously and gradually lower the policy interest rate, as inflation is still high," Bowman said during a dialogue at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference on Friday.

Non-farm data supports further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Bloomberg reporter Chris Anstey stated that the non-farm data released on Friday supports further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

"At first glance, we currently do not see signs of an economic recession. The US labor market remains solid, but there are signs of a slowdown," he said.

Citibank: The South Korean won will face greater pressure due to capital outflows.

Citigroup strategists say that the increasing political risk in South Korea will add pressure to the capital outflow of the South Korean won, bringing downside risk to the won.

We believe that the dollar can only be maintained below 1,400 south korean won in the case of forex intervention," strategists Rohit Garg and Philip Yin wrote in the report. "Nevertheless, we also believe that the authorities have the capacity to intervene in the forex market to the necessary extent.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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