Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002299) Stock Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Weak: What Implications Could This Have On The Stock?
Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002299) Stock Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Weak: What Implications Could This Have On The Stock?
Most readers would already be aware that Fujian Sunner Development's (SZSE:002299) stock increased significantly by 30% over the past three months. We, however wanted to have a closer look at its key financial indicators as the markets usually pay for long-term fundamentals, and in this case, they don't look very promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Fujian Sunner Development's ROE today.
大多数读者可能已经知道,圣农发展(SZSE:002299)的股票在过去三个月内大幅上涨了30%。然而,我们想更仔细地看看其关键财务指标,因为市场通常是看重长期基本面,而在这种情况下,基本面看起来并不太乐观。特别是,今天我们将关注圣农发展的roe。
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
roe,即净资产收益率,是一种评估公司如何有效地从股东手中获取投资回报的有用工具。换句话说,它是一种盈利能力比率,衡量公司股东提供的资本的回报率。
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
如何计算股东权益报酬率?
The formula for ROE is:
roe的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
净资产收益率 = 净利润(来自持续经营) ÷ 股东权益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Fujian Sunner Development is:
因此,根据上述公式,圣农发展的roe是:
2.5% = CN¥264m ÷ CN¥10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).
2.5% = CN¥26400万 ÷ CN¥100亿(基于截至2024年9月的过去十二个月)。
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every CN¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CN¥0.03 in profit.
“回报”是指公司在过去一年中的收益。 另一种思考方式是,对于每一元人民币的股本,公司能够获得0.03元人民币的利润。
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
roe与盈利增长有何关系?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
到目前为止,我们已经了解到roe是衡量公司盈利能力的一个指标。基于公司选择重新投资或“留存”的利润比例,我们可以评估公司未来产生利润的能力。其他因素相等的情况下,roe和利润留存率都较高的公司通常比没有这些特征的公司增长率更高。
A Side By Side comparison of Fujian Sunner Development's Earnings Growth And 2.5% ROE
圣农发展的盈利增长与2.5%的roe的并排对比
It is hard to argue that Fujian Sunner Development's ROE is much good in and of itself. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 7.6%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 52% seen by Fujian Sunner Development was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.
单从roe来看,很难说圣农发展的roe表现得很好。不仅如此,与行业平均7.6%的roe相比,该公司的roe显得毫无特别之处。因此,可以说圣农发展在过去五年中净利润下降52%可能与其较低的roe有关。我们认为,这里可能还有其他因素在起作用,例如低盈利留存或资本配置不当。
However, when we compared Fujian Sunner Development's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 2.5% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
然而,当我们将圣农发展的增长与行业进行对比时发现,尽管公司的盈利在萎缩,但行业在同一时期实现了2.5%的盈利增长。这让人颇为担忧。
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Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Fujian Sunner Development's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
盈利增长是评估股票时一个重要的指标。投资者需要知道市场是否已经考虑到公司的预期盈利增长(或下降)。这样做将有助于他们判断该股票的未来是看好还是看衰。如果你想了解圣农发展的估值,可以查看其市盈率与行业的比较。
Is Fujian Sunner Development Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
圣农发展是否有效利用其利润?
Fujian Sunner Development's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 72% (or a retention ratio of 28%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. Our risks dashboard should have the 4 risks we have identified for Fujian Sunner Development.
考虑到圣农发展大部分利润用于支付分红,结合其三年的中位支付比例72%(或保留比例28%),其盈利下滑并不令人意外。企业仅剩下少量资本用于再投资——这是一个对公司长期无益的恶性循环。我们的风险特斯拉-仪表应包含我们为圣农发展识别的4个风险。
Moreover, Fujian Sunner Development has been paying dividends for eight years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 48% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 12%, over the same period.
此外,圣农发展已经支付分红八年,这段时间相当长,暗示管理层必须意识到股东偏好稳定的分红,尽管盈利在减少。我们的最新分析师数据表明,公司未来的支付比例预计将在未来三年内降至48%。因此,支付比例的预计下降解释了公司roe在同一时期预计会上升到12%。
Conclusion
结论
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Fujian Sunner Development. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
总体而言,在对圣农发展做出任何决策之前,我们将非常谨慎。由于其低的roe和对业务缺乏再投资,公司经历了令人失望的收益增长率。话虽如此,根据目前分析师的估计,我们发现公司的收益增长率预计会有大幅改善。这些分析师的预期是基于行业板块的普遍预期,还是基于公司的基本面?点击这里访问我们分析师预测公司的页面。
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