Despite an already strong run, SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (SHSE:600104) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 31% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 26% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, SAIC Motor may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.1x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 37x and even P/E's higher than 73x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
SAIC Motor has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
SHSE:600104 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry December 8th 2024 If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on SAIC Motor.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, SAIC Motor would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 35%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 60% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 5.2% per annum over the next three years. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% per year.
In light of this, it's understandable that SAIC Motor's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Bottom Line On SAIC Motor's P/E
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift SAIC Motor's P/E close to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that SAIC Motor maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for SAIC Motor that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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