今年前三季度，全国水泥市场产能利用率明显降低。National Bureau of Statistics: In November, cement manufacturing prices increased by 6.2% month-on-month.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in November, a series of existing and incremental policy effects continued to emerge, with real estate and infrastructure projects accelerating, resulting in price increases for cement, nonferrous metals, steel, and other industrial products.
The price of non-metallic mineral products increased by 1.2%, with cement manufacturing prices rising by 6.2%.
In the first three quarters of this year, the national cement market capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased.
The China Cement Association expects that in the first three quarters, the total profit of the cement industry will decrease by about 65% year-on-year, with the industry's sales profit margin falling to below 2%.
However, the cement industry is expected to usher in a turning point of simultaneous increase in quantity and price in the fourth quarter.
Despite poor performance in the first three quarters, the cement industry is expected to recover its performance in the later period through policy adjustments and improvements in market demand. According to Chen Bailin, president of Digital Cement Network, as the macroeconomic environment gradually improves, the cement industry is likely to welcome a positive change with both volume and price rising in the fourth quarter.
"This trend is mainly attributed to the increased policy support at the national level, the introduction of a series of incremental policy measures, and the accelerated issuance of special bonds to alleviate financial constraints, which will effectively increase the start-up rate of downstream engineering projects and slow down the declining trend of cement demand."
Guosen Securities released a research report stating that recent policies have continuously released bullish signals, the policy tone has clearly shifted to a proactive stance with unprecedented strength, and there is still room for further policy efforts. Attention should be paid to the introduction and implementation of incremental policies. Short-term policy guidance expectations have shifted, and market confidence is expected to gradually recover. As various policies continue to be implemented, the effects of these policies are gradually becoming evident, which is expected to further promote stability and recovery in the real estate sector. Currently, the building materials sector is still in the slow recovery phase at the bottom, with valuations and hold positions also at low levels. The continuous implementation of short-term policies is expected to bring about valuation recovery.
Leading enterprises related to the cement sector:
Conch Cement (00914), cnbm (03323), bbmg corporation (02009), huaxin cement (06655), cr bldg mat tec (01313), westchinacement (02233), etc.
