Jinwu Financial News | HSBC Global Research and Development reports that recent customer feedback on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) shows that concerns about global trade and geopolitical risks have increased, and expectations for interest rate cuts in the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar have weakened, but the average daily turnover (ADT) of A-shares is still at a high level, partly reflecting the resilience of domestic capital market sentiment. RMB deposits and interbank interest rates are trending downward, which may support risk appetite. The A-H share premium is also far above the long-term average, showing the relative valuation appeal of H shares.
The bank raised the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's profit forecast for 2024 by 1.7% and lowered the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 3.5% and 1.5%, mainly due to adjusting the average daily transaction forecast, this year's forecast rose slightly to $130 billion, and the 2025 and 2026 forecasts fell to $158 billion and $174 billion. The HKEx market price office expected the price-earnings ratio to 28.9 times, 0.6 standard deviations lower than the long-term average.
The bank lowered the HKEx target price by 2.4% from HK$382 to HK$373 and maintained a “buy” rating.
