The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that from a cyclical+pattern perspective, the NEV sector is at a “triple bottom” upward stage. According to the battery investment clock, when the sector bottoms out, we are facing leading market conditions, and we are optimistic that leading racetrack companies will welcome a comprehensive recovery market. As the industry's capacity utilization rate continued to rise starting in May '25, the bank is optimistic about cyclical opportunities for high-pressure solid lithium and 6F tracks where production capacity is scarce; from a growth perspective, it is optimistic that the 25-year composite fluid collector MC will launch 0-1 large-scale application.

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

Demand has continued to grow at a high rate in 25 years: The bank expects global demand for lithium batteries to be +22% year-on-year in '25.

Among them, power and energy storage are still the core driving forces of demand growth. The bank expects power demand to be 1051/1258 GWh, a growth rate of 22%/20%, and domestic electrification will maintain a high increase; energy storage demand is expected to be 266/372 GWh, a growth rate of 35%/40%, and US storage has entered a period of ultra-high growth; the total demand for consumption and power tools is expected to grow at a rate of 7%/7%. Inventory is healthy and demand is growing steadily.

Cycle: The battery investment clock turns to the bottom of the production capacity utilization rate, and leading segmented racetrack companies and some racetracks with insufficient production capacity are fully launched.

As a cyclical growth track, batteries are the core influencing factors of the fundamentals of the industrial chain in terms of demand growth rate, production capacity, and inventory cycle. In '25, the growth rate of demand will basically match the growth rate of production capacity, and the structural market of leading companies will continue. In some areas, such as high-pressure lithium iron, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc., the growth rate of demand was higher than the supply growth rate. Beginning in May '25, as the industry's capacity utilization rate increased marginally, high-pressure tracks where the balance between supply and demand improved drastically or showed volume and price elasticity.

Pattern: Segmented track leaders are still the best configuration strategy.

Judging from cost and product differences, leading companies have obvious competitive advantages in products and costs on circuits such as batteries, structural components, anodes, lithium iron, ternary precursors, and diaphragms. The industry will maintain the trend of leading companies taking the lead in filling up the capacity utilization rate of leading companies as the highest quality production capacity in the industry, and the degree of performance delivery is the most certain and flexible.

Growth:

(1) Composite fluid collectors and the like in '25 will launch the first iteration of battery material technology. Composite copper foil will soon be applied on a 0-1 scale in 25 years. Composite aluminum foil (MA) has been shipped in small batches at 3C digital and car terminals in 24 years. The composite copper foil (MC) industry solved product quality problems such as powder loss and square resistance of PP films in '23, and rapidly iterated around magnetron sputtering and water plating equipment efficiency and cost reduction issues. Currently, the industry is solving the yield and cost problems of composite fluid-collector battery production lines, which is expected to gradually meet batch application conditions. In the long run, the composite fluid collector is the starting point of a major iterative cycle of battery material technology. The industrial chain is manufacturing, equipment and base film in order according to investment elasticity;

(2) Acceleration of industrialization of solid states, etc. The industrialization of solid-state batteries will accelerate as investment in industrial research and development increases dramatically. From the perspective of the technological iteration roadmap, the anode will be the first to start technological innovation: composite fluid collector+silicon carbon, followed by a shell, electrolyte, etc. The prospects for the industrialization of solid-state batteries are certain, but the technological route of iteration to solid state is gradual, and technological innovation in materials will unfold sequentially according to technology and industrial logic.

Investment advice

(1) Recommended: Ningde Era (300750.SZ), Kodali (002850.SZ), Everweft Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), etc.

(2) In order of elasticity, it is manufacturing, equipment, and base film.

Risk warning: Demand for new energy vehicles falls short of expectations, demand in the energy storage market falls short of expectations, increases in industrial chain production schedules fall short of expectations, increases in operating rates fall short of expectations, risk of European and US policy sanctions, and progress in new technology falling short of expectations.