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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント一時マイナス圏に転落で上値の重い展開続く

Three key points to watch in the latter half: a drop into negative territory has led to a continuation of a heavy upward trend.

Fisco Japan ·  Dec 9 11:37

In the afternoon of the 9th, the following three points deserve attention in trading:

The Nikkei average rebounded, although it briefly fell into negative territory, and trading remains heavy.

The dollar-yen exchange rate is showing signs of stabilizing, influenced by USA interest rates and Japanese stocks.

The top contributor to the rise is Fast Retailing <9983>, followed by Softbank Group Co <9984> in second place.

The Nikkei average rebounded, although it briefly fell into negative territory, and trading remains heavy.

The Nikkei average has rebounded, ending the morning session at 39,197.57 yen, up 106.40 yen (with an estimated volume of 0.8 billion 97.37 million shares).

Last Friday, the USA market saw the Dow Inc drop by 123.19 dollars to 44,642.52 dollars, and Nasdaq closed up 159.05 points at 19,859.77 points. Following the employment statistics, expectations for an additional interest rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased, leading to a rise after the opening. However, due to several Federal Reserve Board (FRB) officials expressing caution regarding rate cuts, speculation about a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts grew stronger, and the market stagnated. While the Dow fluctuated softly throughout the day, the strong early expectations of rate cuts supported the Nasdaq, which consistently traded well and set new all-time highs.

With an eye on the USA stock market, today's Nikkei average started rebounding, rising 241.38 yen compared to last Friday to 39,332.55 yen. Initially driven by buying in line with the Chicago futures, the buying was followed by selling as traders waited for a pullback and took profits, briefly falling into negative territory. However, after that, buying returned and pushed back into positive territory. As semiconductor-related stocks had drawn interest last Friday, there was likely short-term selling pressure today due to awareness of overheating in the semiconductor sector.

Individually, softbank group co <9984>, IHI <7013>, fast retailing <9983>, recruit holdings <6098>, sony group corp <6758>, etc. have risen. Additionally, rakuten <4755> was seen positively for its shareholder benefits and surged sharply, while eland <6099>, ceres <3696>, maruichi steel pipe <5463>, etc. ranked high in terms of price increase.

On the other hand, some semiconductor-related stocks such as disco <6146> and toshiba electronics <8035>, as well as defense-related stocks like mitsubishi heavy industries <7011> and kawasaki heavy industries <7012> showed weakness. Also, mitsubishi ufj <8306>, hitachi <6501>, kansai electric power <9503>, and mitsubishi corporation <8058> fell. AIN Holdings <9627>, which had lower-than-expected operating profit for the first half, and nippon parking development <2353>, which had a solid first-quarter result but showed a sense of exhaustion, plummeted. Furthermore, japan microelectronics <6871>, eternal g <3193>, and symphonia technology <6507> ranked high in terms of price decrease.

By global sectors, while the service industry, air transportation, and information & communications sectors rose, mining, oil & coal products, and the insurance sector declined.

In the latter half of the day, the nikkei average stock price seems likely to remain heavy due to insufficient materials for aggressive buying. The interest in interest rate hike expectations by the bank of japan during the monetary policy meeting on the 18th-19th has decreased compared to the remarks made by bank of japan governor kazuo ueda at the end of November, but depending on the economic data such as the third quarter real GDP (secondary preliminary value) scheduled to be announced this week, there is ample room for revival. Additionally, since the FOMC will be held on the 17th-18th before the bank of japan meeting, interest in U.S. economic indicators such as the U.S. consumer price index for November is expected to rise. This week, anticipating fluctuations in the dollar-yen due to speculation about the U.S. and Japan's central bank meetings, export-related stocks such as automobiles and those benefiting from a strong yen might show up in the rankings of price increases and decreases.

The dollar-yen exchange rate is showing signs of a slight decrease amidst the watch on U.S. interest rates and Japanese stocks.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 9th, the dollar-yen rate showed signs of hesitation to fall, declining from 150.06 yen to 149.69 yen before returning to around 150 yen. The yield on U.S. 10-year bonds has remained firm, making it difficult to sell the dollar. Meanwhile, the nikkei average stock price briefly turned to decline but rose back up, weakening the yen buying.

So far, the trading range has been 149.69 yen to 150.06 yen for dollar-yen, 158.02 yen to 158.55 yen for euro-yen, and 1.0550 dollars to 1.0569 dollars for euro-dollar.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

Three stocks, including GreenBee <3913> and G.C. Planning <4073>, hit the daily limit up.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

The top contributor to the increase is Fast Retailing <9983>, and the second is Softbank Group Co <9984>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

Japan's second preliminary GDP for the July-September period: +1.2% (previous quarter annualized estimate: +1.0%, first preliminary: +0.9%).

Japan's October current account balance: +2 trillion 456.9 billion yen (estimate: +2 trillion 312.2 billion yen, September: +1 trillion 717.1 billion yen).

China's November consumer price index: +0.2% year-on-year (estimate: +0.5%, October: +0.3%).

・November producer price index: -2.5% year-on-year (financial estimates: -2.9%, October: -2.9%)

[Important Person's Remarks]

・Bowman, Fed Governor

"Supports cautious and gradual interest rate cuts"

"The unemployment rate remains at a record low"

"This year's rise in the unemployment rate reflects a slowdown in the pace of employment"

・14:00 November Economy Watchers Survey - Current Judgement (financial estimates: 47.3, September: 47.5)

Nothing special

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