Is CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (HKG:1093) A Risky Investment?
Is CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (HKG:1093) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited (HKG:1093) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
有些人认为波动性而不是债务是投资者思考风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾 famously 说过:'波动性远非与风险同义。' 因此,很明显聪明的钱知道债务——通常与破产有关——在评估公司风险时是一个非常重要的因素。值得注意的是,CSPC 药品集团有限公司 (HKG:1093) 确实有债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否使公司变得危险。
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务有助于企业,直至企业无法偿还,可能是通过新的资本或自由现金流。资本主义的一个重要组成部分是所谓的'创造性破坏'过程,失败的企业被其银行家无情清算。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,企业必须以低价发行股票,永久性稀释股东权益,仅仅是为了巩固其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表廉价资本,特别是当它替代公司以高回报率再投资时的稀释。考虑公司债务水平的第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
How Much Debt Does CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Carry?
CSPC 药品集团的债务有多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group had debt of CN¥388.9m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥450.2m over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥10.8b in cash, so it actually has CN¥10.4b net cash.
下面的图片可以点击查看更详细的信息,显示截至2024年6月底,CSPC 药品集团的债务为38890万人民币,比去年减少了45020万人民币。然而,其资产负债表显示它持有现金108亿人民币,因此它实际上有104亿人民币的净现金。

How Strong Is CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Balance Sheet?
CSPC药品集团的资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group had liabilities of CN¥10.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥988.7m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥10.8b and CN¥12.2b worth of receivables due within a year. So it can boast CN¥11.6b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
根据最新报告的资产负债表,CSPC药品集团在12个月内的负债为104亿人民币,12个月后到期的负债为98870万人民币。另一方面,它拥有现金108亿人民币和122亿人民币的应收款项,这些应收款项在一年内到期。因此,它可以自豪地说,流动资产比总负债多116亿人民币。
This surplus suggests that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is using debt in a way that is appears to be both safe and conservative. Due to its strong net asset position, it is not likely to face issues with its lenders. Succinctly put, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
这项盈余表明CSPC药品集团正在以一种安全且保守的方式使用债务。由于其强劲的净资产状况,它不太可能面临贷方的问题。简而言之,CSPC药品集团拥有净现金,因此可以公平地说它没有沉重的债务负担!
On the other hand, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group saw its EBIT drop by 6.2% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CSPC Pharmaceutical Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
另一方面,CSPC药品集团在过去十二个月中,其EBIT下降了6.2%。如果收益继续以这个速度下降,公司可能会在管理其债务负担方面面临越来越大的困难。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但最终,业务未来的盈利能力将决定CSPC药品集团是否能够随时间增强其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,展示分析师的利润预测。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. In the last three years, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's free cash flow amounted to 46% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
最后,一家公司只能用现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。虽然CSPC药品集团在其资产负债表上拥有净现金,但仍然值得关注其将息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们理解它如何快速建立(或削减)那笔现金余额。在过去三年中,CSPC药品集团的自由现金流占其EBIT的46%,低于我们的预期。这种疲弱的现金转化使得处理债务更加困难。
Summing Up
总之
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has net cash of CN¥10.4b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we don't have any problem with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
虽然我们同情那些对债务感到担忧的投资者,但您应该记住,CSPC药品集团拥有净现金104亿人民币,流动资产也超过了负债。因此,我们对CSPC药品集团使用债务没有任何问题。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个开始控件。但最终,任何公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,CSPC药品集团在我们的投资分析中显示出1个警告信号,您需要了解...
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
当一切尘埃落定时,有时更容易专注于那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以立即免费查看零净债务的成长股列表。
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