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Is Hefei Urban Construction Development (SZSE:002208) A Risky Investment?

Is Hefei Urban Construction Development (SZSE:002208) A Risky Investment?

合肥城建发展(SZSE:002208)是否是一个风险投资?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/08 21:00

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd (SZSE:002208) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

传奇基金经理李录(查理·芒格支持过的人)曾说过:‘最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。’当我们考虑一家公司有多风险时,我们总是喜欢查看其债务使用情况,因为债务超负荷可能导致毁灭。重要的是,合肥城建有限公司(深交所代码:002208)确实背负债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务带来了多大的风险?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时有危险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

债务在业务不产生困难之前是对企业有利的,可以用新资本或自由现金流进行偿还。如果情况变得非常糟糕,放贷人可以接管企业。然而,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,企业不得不以较低价格筹集新的权益资本,从而永久地稀释股东的权益。尽管如此,最常见的情况是一家公司合理地管理其债务水平,并使其为自己谋利。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时的第一步是综合考虑其现金和债务情况。

What Is Hefei Urban Construction Development's Debt?

合肥城建的债务是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, Hefei Urban Construction Development had CN¥9.94b of debt, up from CN¥9.02b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥3.71b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥6.23b.

正如下方所示,在2024年9月底,合肥城建的债务为99.4亿人民币,比一年前的90.2亿人民币有所增加。点击图片了解更多细节。然而,它还有37.1亿人民币的现金,因此其净债务为62.3亿人民币。

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SZSE:002208 Debt to Equity History December 9th 2024
深交所:002208债务与股本历史 2024年12月9日

How Healthy Is Hefei Urban Construction Development's Balance Sheet?

合肥城建的资产负债表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hefei Urban Construction Development had liabilities of CN¥20.8b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥6.20b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥3.71b and CN¥3.75b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥19.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

深入查看最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到合肥城建在12个月内有CN¥208亿的负债,而超出12个月的负债为CN¥62亿。另一方面,它拥有CN¥37.1亿的现金和价值CN¥37.5亿的应收账款,这些应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金及短期应收账款的总额多出CN¥195亿。

This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥7.45b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Hefei Urban Construction Development would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

这种赤字在这家市值CN¥74.5亿的公司上投下了阴影,就像一座巨人高高耸立在凡人之上。因此我们毫无疑问会密切关注它的资产负债表。毕竟,如果合肥城建今天必须偿还债权人,它可能需要进行大规模的再融资。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

为了衡量公司相对于其收益的债务情况,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆盖率)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量(净负债与 EBITDA),又考虑到了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。

Hefei Urban Construction Development's net debt to EBITDA ratio is 6.1 which suggests rather high debt levels, but its interest cover of 7.7 times suggests the debt is easily serviced. Our best guess is that the company does indeed have significant debt obligations. We note that Hefei Urban Construction Development grew its EBIT by 30% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Hefei Urban Construction Development's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

合肥城建的净债务与EBITDA的比率为6.1,这表明负债水平相对较高,但其利息覆盖率为7.7倍,表明债务服务能力较强。我们最好的猜测是,该公司确实有显著的债务义务。我们注意到合肥城建在过去一年中EBIT增长了30%,这应该会使其未来偿还债务变得更轻松。分析债务时,资产负债表显然是关注的重点。但合肥城建的收益将影响其未来资产负债表的表现。因此,在考虑债务时,查看收益趋势绝对是值得的。点击这里查看互动快照。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Hefei Urban Construction Development saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

但是我们最后的考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要真实的现金。 所以我们显然需要查看EBIt是否导致了相应的自由现金流。在过去三年中,合肥城建的自由现金流总计出现了大幅负值。虽然这可能是由于增长支出的结果,但它确实使债务变得更加危险。

Our View

我们的观点

To be frank both Hefei Urban Construction Development's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Hefei Urban Construction Development's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 6 warning signs for Hefei Urban Construction Development (4 don't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

坦率地说,合肥城建将EBIt转化为自由现金流的能力以及它在总负债方面的表现让我们对其债务水平感到相当不安。但从积极的一面来看,它的EBIt增长率是一个好迹象,让我们更加乐观。总体而言,在我们看来,合肥城建的资产负债表确实对其业务构成风险。因此,我们对这只股票的警惕程度几乎与一只饥饿的小猫在害怕掉进它主人鱼池时的警惕性一样:一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳,果然没错。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的切入点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们发现了合肥城建的6个警示信号(其中4个让我们不太舒服!)在您投资之前应该注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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