According to Zhito Finance APP, Sinolink released research reports stating that the three-child policy is being implemented intensively, with many regions introducing a package of fertility incentive policies including housing security and educational benefits. In the long term, this may support population growth and enhance the valuation of the k12 sector. In the tourism sector, domestic policies focus on high-quality development of the ice and snow economy, with continuous optimization of inbound and outbound policies, and visa-free travel expanded to 38 countries. Guangzhou's 100 million consumer vouchers are about to be introduced, and attention should be paid to the follow-up of dining consumer vouchers in various regions, recommending a cyclical investment direction, with a focus on resilient companies in hotels, dining, personal services, and vocational education.

Sinolink Securities' main points are as follows:

The three-child policy is being implemented intensively, with many regions introducing a package of fertility incentive policies including housing security and educational benefits.

On October 28, the General Office of the State Council issued a notice on 'Measures to Accelerate the Improvement of the Fertility Support Policy System to Promote the Construction of a Fertility-Friendly Society'. It requires localities to formulate supporting fertility policies based on the local population conditions, economic strength, policy space, and other actual circumstances.

As of now, clear policies have been introduced in regions such as hangzhou in zhejiang, changsha in hunan, jiujian in gansu, and quanzhou in fujian. The introduced policies include direct fertility rewards, housing subsidies, encouraging companies to provide fertility subsidies, kindergarten care subsidies, and the option to choose schools, indicating the determination of various regions to implement central policies, play a demonstration role, and are expected to lead to the introduction and implementation of the three-child policy nationwide. In the long term, this may support population growth and enhance the valuation of the k12 sector.

As winter approaches, the trend of ice and snow tourism is strong, with policies focusing on high-quality development of the ice and snow economy.

On December 5th, the Central Regional Coordinating Development Leading Group Office issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Ice and Snow Economy in the Northeast Region to Achieve New Breakthroughs in Comprehensive Revitalization." The plan indicates that efforts must focus on improving the quality of ice and snow tourism, supporting the construction of ice and snow themed tourist resorts and scenic spots, and backing the establishment of national and provincial level ice and snow themed tourist resorts and A-level scenic spots. It also supports cultivating globally renowned high-quality destinations for ice and snow tourism in suitable regions. The policy introduction will further be bullish for scenic companies related to ice and snow tourism.

The inbound and outbound policies continue to be optimized, with the visa-free range expanded to 38 countries.

On November 22, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated at a routine press conference that, in order to further facilitate the exchange of personnel between China and foreign countries, China has decided to expand the scope of visa-free countries. Starting from November 30, 2024, to December 31, 2025, visa-free policies will be trialed for ordinary passport holders from Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, black hills corp, North Macedonia, Malta, Estonia, Latvia, and japan. The 144-hour transit visa waiver and unilateral visa exemption policies are important drivers for the growth of inbound tourism in China.

With the addition of these 9 new countries, nearly 40 countries are now subject to China's unilateral visa waiver policy. So far, tourists from these countries account for over 30% of the total orders for inbound tourism in China. As the effects of visa exemptions are released, inbound tourism in China is expected to see further growth. It is anticipated that the expansion of the visa-free range will benefit OTA by enhancing their penetration in overseas customer groups, while hotels with strong IP attributes and those in port cities will also benefit.

Guangzhou will issue 100 million yuan in government consumer vouchers under the "Eat in Guangzhou" initiative, significantly boosting local dining consumption.

On November 28, the 16th session of the 86th Standing Committee of the Guangzhou Municipal Government reviewed and approved the implementation plan regarding the "Eat in Guangzhou" government consumer vouchers (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Plan"), planning to distribute 0.1 billion yuan in vouchers to release local consumer demand, attract domestic and foreign tourists to Guangzhou, and energize the city's status as an international consumption center. This issuance of vouchers further expands the coverage of the program. The vouchers have a direct stimulating effect on the dining industry, which is beneficial to stimulate the consumption demand of the local dining industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the income flexibility of mid-to-high-priced leisure dining and hot pot categories.

Market review

In the past two weeks (2024/11/25~2024/12/06), the sse composite index, shenzhen component index, csi 300 index, hang seng index, and hang seng tech index increased by +4.30%, +3.56%, +3.25%, +3.43%, +5.41% respectively; social services (Shenwan) +6.60%. In detail, the dining A-share and Hong Kong stock indexes increased by +13.19%, +7.98% respectively; hotel A-share and Hong Kong stock indexes increased by +2.88%, -2.19% respectively; the tourism index increased by +7.03%; the human services index increased by +9.76%; the education index increased by +6.07%. In terms of sector comparison, the social services sector ranked 7th in terms of growth among the 30 primary Shenwan industry sectors last week.

Investment advice

Annual strategy for 2025:

1) Focus on cyclical direction, paying particular attention to resilient companies in the hotel, dining, staffing, and vocational education sectors.

2) Continuation of prosperity, with a focus on the sustained demand for ice and snow tourism, improving competitive landscape of OTA platforms, the introduction of the three-child policy is bullish for the k12 sector, and paying attention to catalytic individual stocks in natural scenic areas (such as the ice and snow economy).

3) Strong dividend characteristics; when market risk appetite experiences short-term fluctuations, it is advised to allocate some defense-oriented symbols, such as yum china (09987) with stable performance growth and relatively high dividend yield.

This week's investment portfolio: yum china (09987), dpc dash (01405), atour lifestyle holdings (ATAT.US), btg hotels (600258.SH), jiumaojiu (09922), among others.

Risk warnings: Consumer demand recovery may fall short of expectations, risks associated with the actual implementation of policies, rising raw material prices, and potential labor shortages.