其中资本支出的下降幅度小于预期，仅下降0.1%，小于初步估计0.2%的降幅；外部需求对增长的拖累也小于初步估计，从0.4%降至0.2%；然而，占日本经济一半以上的私人消费增长仅为0.7%，低于初步估计的0.9%。Japan's GDP for the third quarter grew by 1.2% on an annualized basis, higher than the initial estimate of 0.9%, with upward revisions to capital investment and export data, and downward revisions to consumer data. Analysis suggests that considering weak consumer spending, the cautious decision-making style of the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and concerns regarding Trump's economic policies in a second term, the suspense surrounding a rate hike in December remains.
Due to the upward revision of capital investment and export data, Japan's economic growth rate from July to September was faster than earlier expected, seemingly bringing hope for a short-term interest rate hike. However, the consumer data for the quarter was revised downwards, leading some analysts to believe that this indicates the fragility of Japan's economic recovery, making a December interest rate hike not a certainty.
Today, the latest revised data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office shows that Japan's GDP for the third quarter grew by 1.2% on an annualized basis, exceeding analyst expectations and higher than the initial value of 0.9%; after price adjustments, Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, higher than the initial value of 0.2%. Specifically:
The decline in capital spending was less than expected, only dropping by 0.1%, lower than the initial estimate of 0.2%; the drag on growth from external demand was also less than initially estimated, decreasing from 0.4% to 0.2%; however, private consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, only grew by 0.7%, lower than the initial estimate of 0.9%.
The Bank of Japan will hold its next policy meeting on December 18-19, and this data may be one of the reference factors for interest rate adjustments. Nomura Securities economist Uichiro Nozaki commented:
"While these data will not significantly boost expectations for a rate hike, they also will not be an obstacle to raising rates."
However, even with the upward revision of Japan's GDP growth for the third quarter, it is still much slower compared to the 2.2% annualized growth in the April-June quarter. Previously, the Bank of Japan gradually phased out its aggressive stimulus policy after a decade in March, and raised short-term interest rates to 0.25% in July. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that if the central bank becomes more confident that inflation can stabilize around 2% with the support of wage growth and strong domestic demand, they are prepared to raise rates again.
Despite this, the market remains cautious about the outlook for the Japanese economy, considering factors such as the uncertainties abroad, such as the possibility of US President-elect Trump raising tariffs, casting a shadow over Japan's economic prospects. Senior economist Masato Koike from Sompo Institute Plus stated:
Although the increase in actual wages will support consumer spending, the recovery of external demand will be suppressed due to stagnation in overseas growth. The Japanese economy will continue to recover, but at a slow pace.
Many market participants expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again by the end of this fiscal year, but there is a divergence in the specific timing of the rate hike between December of this year and early next year.
Considering weak consumer demand, the cautious decision-making style of the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and concerns about President Trump's second term economic policies in the USA, sources cited by Reuters also stated, "The Bank of Japan is cautious about the timing of the next rate hike, and the uncertainty of a rate hike in December remains."
