On Monday, according to the latest survey released by the New York Federal Reserve in the usa, the short-term, medium-term, and long-term inflation expectations of respondents in November all increased, with inflation expectations for all terms rising by 0.1 percentage points. After Trump won the presidential election in the usa, people’s outlook on household finances reached the most optimistic level since early 2020.

In November, the one-year inflation expectation in the usa rose to 3%, up from 2.9% in October; the three-year inflation expectation increased to 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in October; and the five-year inflation expectation was at 2.9%, up from 2.8% in October.

It is important to note that the uncertainty regarding these numbers has also increased among respondents. In addition, the overall one-year and three-year inflation expectations have grown, with inflation expectations declining among those without a college degree and rising among those with a college degree.

In terms of specific categories:

• Consumers expect that gasoline prices will rise by 2.72% in the coming year, with the growth expectation down by 0.5 percentage points.
• Food prices are expected to rise by 3.77%, with the growth expectation down by 0.5 percentage points.
• Medical expenses are expected to rise by 5.96%, with growth expectations increasing by 0.2 percentage points.
• University education costs are expected to rise by 6.73%, with growth expectations increasing by 1 percentage point.
• Rental costs are expected to rise by 5.7%, with growth expectations declining by 0.5 percentage points.
• The expected growth rate of the median housing price remains unchanged at 3%. Since August 2023, the expectations for the growth of median housing prices have been fluctuating narrowly between 3.0% and 3.3%.

A notable feature of this survey is that, although people's views on their current household financial situation have not changed much compared to a year ago, expectations for the future have improved significantly. The Federal Reserve's survey of about 1,300 households shows:

The proportion of households expecting their financial situation to improve in a year has soared to 37.6%, an increase of about 8 percentage points since October, reaching the highest level since February 2020, just before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The proportion of people expecting their personal financial situation to worsen has decreased to 20.7%, nearly 2 percentage points lower than a month ago, marking the lowest level since May 2021.

The proportion of consumers unable to repay the minimum debt in the next three months is expected to drop to 13.15%, down from 13.89% in October.

The median value of expected household spending growth has fallen to 4.7%, the lowest level since April 2021, decreasing by 0.2 percentage points in a single month.

Analysts report that after Trump won the usa presidential election, people's optimism about household finances was the highest in years, as Trump promised to implement a series of tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks to stimulate usa economic growth.

The key points related to the labor market in this survey are as follows, with mixed results:

Respondents expect the median value of income growth over the next year to rise to 3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, mainly driven by those without a college degree.

The average unemployment expectation, which is the average probability of the usa unemployment rate rising in a year, increased by 0.5 percentage points in November to 35.0%, significantly lower than the average of 37.0% over the past 12 months.

The average perceived probability of unemployment in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.5%.

The average probability of voluntary resignation in the next 12 months decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 20.2%.

If the current job is lost, the average perceived probability of finding a new job has decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 54.1%. Individuals across all age groups and education levels have experienced a decline on this issue.

The Federal Reserve's survey also shows:

• Consumers are more optimistic about the prospects of the usa stock market. The average perceived probability of a rise in the usa stock market in a year has increased by 1.3 percentage points to 40.4%.
• The average perceived probability of an increase in the savings account interest rate over the next 12 months has risen by 2.1 percentage points to 26.7%.
• The median expectation for government debt growth over the next year has significantly decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 6.2%, the lowest level since February 2020.
• Based on current income levels, the median expectation for tax changes over the next year has declined by 0.6 percentage points to 3.4%.