Is BMO Stock a Buy Now?
Is BMO Stock a Buy Now?
Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) recently reported fiscal fourth-quarter (Q4) 2024 results that came in weaker than expected, but the stock soared on the news.
蒙特利尔银行(多伦多证券交易所股票代码:BMO)最近公布的2024财年第四季度(第四季度)业绩低于预期,但该股因消息而飙升。
Investors who missed the bounce are wondering if BMO stock is undervalued right now and good to buy for a self-directed Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) or Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) portfolio focused on dividends and total returns.
错过反弹的投资者想知道BMO股票目前是否被低估,是否愿意购买以股息和总回报为重点的自管免税储蓄账户(TFSA)或注册退休储蓄计划(RRSP)投资组合。
Bank of Montreal stock price
蒙特利尔银行股价
Bank of Montreal trades near $143 per share at the time of writing. The stock recently surged above $146 and is up about 9.5% in 2024.
在撰写本文时,蒙特利尔银行的交易价格接近每股143美元。该股最近飙升至146美元以上,并在2024年上涨约9.5%。
The rally since September is largely due to interest rate cuts in the United States and Canada.
自9月以来的涨势主要是由于美国和加拿大的降息。
Bank of Montreal has a large American presence that dates back to its purchase of Harris Bank in the 1980s. Over time, Bank of Montreal has grown the U.S. business through strategic acquisitions, with the most recent being the US$16.5 billion purchase of California-based Bank of the West in early 2023.
蒙特利尔银行在美国拥有庞大的业务,其历史可以追溯到1980年代收购哈里斯银行。随着时间的推移,蒙特利尔银行通过战略收购发展了美国业务,最近的一次收购是2023年初以165亿美元收购总部位于加利福尼亚的西方银行。
The surge in interest rates in 2022 and 2023 put some commercial borrowers in a difficult situation. Households that have had to renew mortgages at much higher rates have also taken a hit. As a result, Bank of Montreal and its peers have increased provisions for credit losses (PCL) to cover potential defaults.
2022年和2023年利率的飙升使一些商业借款人陷入困境。不得不以更高的利率续订抵押贷款的家庭也受到了打击。结果,蒙特利尔银行及其同行增加了信贷损失准备金(PCL),以弥补潜在的违约。
Bank of Montreal reported PCL of $1.52 billion for fiscal Q4 2024 compared to $446 million in the same period last year. For full-year fiscal 2024, BMO set aside $3.76 billion in PCL compared to $2.18 billion in fiscal 2023.
蒙特利尔银行报告称,2024财年第四季度的PCL为15.2亿美元,而去年同期为4.46亿美元。在2024财年全年,BMO预留了37.6亿美元的PCL,而2023财年的PCL为21.8亿美元。
The Q4 PCL number is the largest among the Canadian banks. Bank of Montreal has some loans in the commercial banking segment of the American business that caused the PCL number to be higher than analysts had expected. Looking ahead, BMO expects PCL to moderate through 2025.
第四季度的PCL数字是加拿大银行中最大的。蒙特利尔银行在美国业务的商业银行领域有一些贷款,这导致PCL数字高于分析师的预期。展望未来,BMO预计,到2025年,PCL将保持缓和。
The interesting thing about the earnings results is that the stock initially plunged to below $127 on the news and then rallied to $146. The reason might be that investors believe PCL will decline in the coming quarters.
盈利业绩的有趣之处在于,该股最初在新闻中跌至127美元以下,然后上涨至146美元。原因可能是投资者认为PCL将在未来几个季度下跌。
Another catalyst for the move higher might have been the 3% dividend increase and the news that BMO plans to buy back up to 20 million shares.
上涨的另一个催化剂可能是3%的股息增长以及BMO计划回购多达2000万股股票的消息。
Risks
风险
Rising unemployment in Canada could continue in 2025 and 2026 as the economy slows down. Interest rates are expected to continue to decline as the Bank of Canada tries to keep the economy from weakening too much, but lower rates might not be enough to offset the impact of job losses. Roughly one million Canadian homeowners face mortgage renewals in 2025 at rates that will be meaningfully higher than when the loans were initially taken in 2020. If defaults surge, the Canadian banks could be in for a rough ride.
随着经济放缓,加拿大的失业率可能会在2025年和2026年持续上升。由于加拿大银行努力防止经济过度疲软,预计利率将继续下降,但较低的利率可能不足以抵消失业的影响。到2025年,大约有100万加拿大房主将面临抵押贷款续期,其利率将明显高于2020年最初获得贷款时的利率。如果违约率激增,加拿大银行可能会陷入困境。
South of the border, there is a risk that the central bank will decide to put rate cuts on hold or even raise rates again if inflation moves higher. This could occur if Donald Trump implements tariffs next year on all goods entering the country.
在边境以南,如果通货膨胀率上升,央行有可能决定暂停降息,甚至再次加息。如果唐纳德·特朗普明年对所有进入该国的商品征收关税,可能会发生这种情况。
Should you buy Bank of Montreal now?
你现在应该买蒙特利尔银行吗?
Investors can get a decent 4.4% dividend yield from BMO stock at the current price, so you get paid well to ride out the turbulence.
按当前价格,投资者可以从BMO股票中获得可观的4.4%的股息收益率,因此您可以获得丰厚的报酬,以度过动荡。
That being said, new investors might want to wait for a better entry point. The stock is already starting to give back some of the recent gains. Considering the size of the rally over the past three months and the uncertainty heading into 2025, a pullback wouldn't be a surprise in the near term.
话虽如此,新投资者可能希望等待更好的切入点。该股已经开始回吐近期的部分涨幅。考虑到过去三个月的涨势规模以及进入2025年的不确定性,短期内回调并不令人意外。