According to Zhitong Finance, on Monday, the three major indexes closed lower, with the market focusing on the November CPI inflation data to further determine the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Chinese stocks surged after Xinhuanet co., ltd. reported that the expression of monetary policy has changed from "prudent" to "moderately loose," indicating that China continues to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance.

【US stocks】 As of the close, the Dow dropped 240.59 points, a decline of 0.54%, closing at 44401.93 points; the Nasdaq fell 123.08 points, a decline of 0.62%, closing at 19736.69 points; the S&P 500 index decreased by 37.32 points, a decline of 0.61%, closing at 6052.95 points. Nvidia (NVDA.US) dropped 2.5%, MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) fell 7.5%, and Coinbase (COIN.US) dropped over 9%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 8.5%, reaching a nearly two-month high, with Bilibili (BILI.US) up 21%, PDD Holdings (PDD.US) up 10%, Alibaba (BABA.US) up 7.5%, and XPeng Motors (XPEV.US) up 13%.

【European stocks】 The German DAX30 index dropped 9.14 points, a decline of 0.04%, closing at 20376.65 points; the UK FTSE 100 index increased by 41.64 points, an increase of 0.50%, closing at 8350.25 points; the French CAC40 index rose by 53.26 points, an increase of 0.72%, closing at 7480.14 points; the EURO STOXX 50 index increased by 7.37 points, an increase of 0.15%, closing at 4985.15 points; the Spain IBEX35 index decreased by 66.00 points, a decline of 0.55%, closing at 12006.00 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index dropped 182.50 points, a decline of 0.53%, closing at 34567.00 points.

【Asia-Pacific stock markets】 The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.18%, the Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index increased by 0.74%, while the South Korea KOSPI index fell by 2.78%.

【Cryptos】 Bitcoin fluctuated rapidly around 5:00 AM today, dropping from 0.0964 million dollars to approximately 0.0947 million dollars, and then quickly rebounding to 0.0964 million dollars, a process lasting about 10 minutes. According to Jin Shi, over the past hour, the total liquidation amount of cryptocurrencies on the network expanded to 0.857 billion dollars, with over 0.497 million people liquidated in the past 24 hours.

【Gold】 Spot gold increased by 1.04%, closing at 2660.52 dollars per ounce, trading within the range of 2627.61-2676.43 dollars during the day; COMEX gold futures rose by 0.86%, closing at 2682.40 dollars per ounce.

[Crude Oil] The January futures price of Brent crude oil on the European intercontinental exchange rose by $1.02, an increase of 1.43%, closing at $72.14 per barrel. The January futures price of West Texas Intermediate oil on the New York commodity exchange increased by $1.17, a rise of 1.74%, settling at $68.37 per barrel.

[Metals] LME copper futures closed up $110, reported at $9232 per ton. LME aluminum futures fell by $0.16, reported at $2588 per ton. LME zinc futures closed up $54, reported at $3126 per ton. LME lead futures fell by $4, reported at $2068 per ton. LME nickel futures decreased by $51, reported at $15996 per ton. LME tin futures closed up $767, reported at $29918 per ton. LME cobalt futures remained flat, reported at $24300 per ton.

Macro news

Wholesale inventories in the usa showed a slight rebound in October. Due to a small increase in durable goods inventory, usa wholesale inventories moderately rebounded in October. The published data indicated a 0.2% month-on-month growth in wholesale inventories. As businesses stockpiled goods due to concerns about tariff increases, inventory levels may increase in the coming months. Specifically, durable goods inventory increased slightly by 0.1% thanks to the boost from furniture, professional equipment, and timber wholesalers. However, auto inventory decreased by 0.1%, and electrical appliance inventory fell by 1.0%. Non-durable goods inventory grew by 0.3%, with strong growth in groceries and pharmaceutical inventories. Wholesale sales dropped by 0.1% in October after increasing by 0.5% in September. Based on the sales rate in October, wholesalers may need 1.34 months to clear their shelves, which is the same as in September.

Consumers in the usa expect inflation to rise. According to a report released by the New York Fed on Monday, although usa consumers anticipate a rise in inflation levels over the next few years, they remain optimistic about improvements in their personal financial situations. The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey in November indicated that consumers expect a 3% inflation rate one year from now, up from 2.9% in October; the expected inflation rate for three years later is 2.6%, slightly higher than 2.5% last month. The inflation expectation for five years later rose from 2.8% in October to 2.9%. Despite rising inflation expectations, consumers believe that the price increases of gasoline, rent, and food will slow down over the next year, while medical costs and university tuition fee hikes are expected to be greater. Meanwhile, the expected rise in housing prices remained steady at 3% in November.

Analysts believe that bitcoin, gold, and silver may be in a strong bull market. Since Trump's election win, the market has been in absolute frenzy, but investors question whether this sensational performance can continue after his inauguration day. Analyst Brian Russ stated, "If we expect deficits to widen and inflation to rise cyclically, then bonds will become less attractive compared to physical assets. This can include stocks, and of course, precious metals. I think bitcoin and commodities will also be part of the discussion. You can see some price trends in commodities that are driven partly by narratives and partly by supply dynamics." Russ indicated that etf could impact traditional 60/40 investment portfolios, as more people shift from the bond market to alternative investments. "The 60/40 investment portfolio has always been 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Now, people are looking for alternatives. Therefore, we may not assign all 40% of our investments to bonds. Maybe gold and silver will take a part, and perhaps bitcoin will also occupy some of it." As these portfolio reallocations occur, it is expected that the trends of gold, bitcoin, silver, and even other assets will be favorable. He believes fixed income will face headwinds, and we may currently be in the early to mid-stage of this situation.

Barclays: There is a high degree of uncertainty in usa interest rate predictions for 2025. Based on the baseline outlook for a soft landing of the usa economy in 2025, Barclays' interest rate strategist forecasts that the 2-year and 10-year treasury yield will settle at 3.75% and 4.25%, respectively, with a yield spread of 2s10s expanding by about 50 basis points. The report stated that interest rate cuts should drive rates lower, while longer-term yields face pressures from rising neutral rates, high interest rate volatility, inflation risk premiums, and the net expansion of bonds. However, the incoming Trump administration will bring "a lot of uncertainty".

The Bank of England plans to provide more liquidity through key repurchase tools. The Bank of England plans to offer more liquidity to banks at lower prices to address potential cash shortages in the uk financial system during future balance sheet reductions. On December 9, the Bank of England stated that it would increase the available reserve amount in the indexed long-term refinancing (ILTR) auction from £25 billion to at least £30 billion (approximately $38 billion). The plan is to provide more reserves at a lower "initial pricing level" and adjust the price for obtaining more reserves. These proposals were made in a consultation report released on Monday, prior to Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden's speech on financial stability. The Bank of England expects these adjustments to be implemented in the second quarter of 2025.

[Individual stock news]

Mondelez International (MDLZ.US) is reportedly exploring the acquisition of the American chocolate manufacturer Hershey (HSY.US), which could create a new food giant. Sources indicate that the snack and confectionery company Mondelez International is looking into acquiring the well-known American chocolate producer Hershey. This potential deal could establish a food giant with nearly $50 billion in total sales. Sources, who requested anonymity due to non-public information, stated that Mondelez, headquartered in Chicago, has made preliminary contacts regarding a possible merger. As of last weekend, Mondelez's market cap was approximately $84 billion, while Hershey's was $35 billion. This is not the first time Mondelez has sought to reach a deal with Hershey. The chocolate giant rejected Mondelez's $23 billion acquisition proposal in 2016, after which Mondelez exited discussions about a potential acquisition. As of last Friday, Hershey's stock price had fallen approximately 6% in the New York market year-to-date. Data shows that including debt, Hershey's market cap is about $40 billion. This means that a potential acquisition of Hershey would exceed this year's largest transaction, where snack manufacturer Mars agreed to acquire Kellanova for nearly $36 billion, debt included. Any deal would require the support of Hershey Trust Co., which holds nearly all Class B shares of Hershey, giving it about 80% voting rights. The trust has been gradually selling off some of its Hershey shares to diversify its portfolio. Sources state that discussions are in early stages, and it is uncertain whether an agreement will be reached. A representative for Hershey stated that the company does not comment on market rumors. The reporter was unable to immediately reach a spokesperson for Hershey Trust for comment. Mondelez's representatives did not respond to repeated requests for comments.

Microstrategy (MSTR.US) has once again purchased more bitcoin, raising attention regarding its fundraising. Microstrategy today bought $2.1 billion worth of bitcoin, while the company sold a combination of stocks and fixed income securities to fund the rapidly increasing purchases, which has attracted growing interest. This is the company's fifth consecutive Monday announcing digital asset purchases. Co-founder and director Michael Saylor has decided that this small enterprise software manufacturer needs to take a different survival path, accumulating bitcoin worth over $41 billion in the past four years. In October of this year, he announced plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years by selling stocks in the market and issuing convertible bonds to accelerate its strategic transformation. The current danger is that a year-long massive rebound in cryptos may reverse, in which case leveraged bets on its value could have severe consequences for its owners.

Bank review:

Bernstein gives AT&T (T.US) an initial rating of outperforming the market with a target price of $28; Verizon (VZ.US) receives an initial rating in line with the market.