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前場に注目すべき3つのポイント~為替相場の落ち着きから底堅い相場展開に~

Three key points to focus on in the first half - a steady market development from the stability of the foreign exchange market.

Fisco Japan ·  Dec 9 17:42

There are three points to focus on in the trading before the market opens.

■ The market is expected to develop steadily due to the calmness of the foreign exchange market.

■ Miraiar's operating profit for the third quarter decreased by 26.3% to 1.037 billion yen.

■ Key point for the morning session: Flexibility in the duration of a class is being considered by the Ministry of Education, with discretion given to each elementary and middle school.


■ The market is expected to develop steadily due to the calmness of the foreign exchange market.

On the 10th, the japanese stock market is likely to start with slightly bullish sentiment and then show a strong sense of stagnation in market movement. The US market on the 9th saw the dow jones industrial average drop by 240 points and the nasdaq decline by 123 points. Although the outlook for additional rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains unchanged, sentiment is increasing to wait for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced on the 11th, as it is expected to have an impact. Additionally, the announcement that Chinese authorities have started investigating nvidia for potential antitrust violations has added pressure. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures closing price is 39,320 yen, which is 110 yen higher compared to Osaka. The yen is trading at around 151.20 yen to the dollar.

The Nikkei average stock price is likely to begin slightly bullish as it aligns with the Chicago futures. In the USA, major stock price indices have fallen, and the semiconductor sector, including nvidia, showed weak price movements, which might weigh heavily on the index-impacting high-tech stocks. Therefore, even if it starts with a bullish sentiment, unstable price movements are expected afterwards.

However, in the foreign exchange market, the dollar is trending towards a weaker yen at around 151 yen to the dollar. Regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the anticipation of an interest rate hike in this month's monetary policy meeting has receded, and a rate hike is expected in January of next year. As the outlook for rate cuts by the FOMC is fully priced in, the likelihood of buybacks by sellers hesitant about narrowing the interest rate gap between japan and the usa will be heightened. With the upcoming major special settlement index calculation for futures and single options, it is expected that rollovers due to month-end transitions will dominate the futures market, but if there are movements to raise the range, responses to hedge are likely to increase.

The trend of semiconductor stocks seems to be developing, but due to the stabilization of the exchange rate, there is also a possibility that buying will shift towards export-related sectors, so overall, a sense of resilience is expected. Therefore, a stance aiming for dips should be considered. Additionally, in European securities, a bullish rating is observed in one sector of machinery, which is also likely to be taken into account.


■ Miraiar's operating profit for the third quarter decreased by 26.3% to 1.037 billion yen.

Mirai Aru <4238> announced its results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending January 2025, with revenue of 10.271 billion yen, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year, and operating profit of 1.370 billion yen, a decrease of 26.3%. For the fiscal year ending January 2025, revenue is planned to be 13.840 billion yen, an increase of 4.4% compared to the previous period, and operating profit is expected to decrease by 10% to 1.370 billion yen. Revenue and various stage profits did not reach consensus.


Materials of concern in the morning session

The Nikkei average rose (39160.50, +69.33).

・1 dollar = 151.10-20 yen

・Chicago Nikkei futures are rising (39,320, +110)

・U.S. crude oil futures are rising (68.37, +1.17)

Active share buybacks

Request for improvement in corporate value by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

・Horiba Seisakusho <6856> deepening in India with hydrogen internal combustion engines for heavy equipment, collaborating with a Belgian company

・Sumitomo Heavy <6302> will launch equipment for SiC semiconductors next year, with annealing processing capacity increased fourfold

・Osaka Gas <9532> expands rechargeable battery business, focusing on DC demand

・Sharp <6753> revises the framework for converting the Sakai factory to DC, kddi corporation builds it.

・Chubu Electric Power <9502> group's JERA merges with UK BP for offshore wind power.

・Toyota Boshoku <3116> promotes automation and digitizes sewing and assembly.

・Japan Thomson <6480> drive stage reduces cross-section with XY motion.

・ Hochiki <6745> partners with Ajira to streamline security.

・Hoshizaki <6465> completes the switch to natural refrigerants for commercial refrigerators by the end of the year.

・JDI <6740> oled mass production in china hits "rocky shores".

・Panasonic HD <6752> establishes an R&D base in Tokyo for the electrical equipment business.

Nidec (6594) has developed a water cooling device for AI servers in collaboration with a US company, achieving 2.5 times the cooling performance.

Fujitsu (6702) has signed a three-year contract with AWS to expand collaboration across all sectors.

NTT (9432) group's NTT East is demonstrating AI support for medical document creation.

Konica Minolta (4902) is establishing a procurement company in Vietnam.

Asahi Kasei (3407) has provided high-purity carbonate technology, and a plant is now operating in China.

China Electric Power (9504) has restarted the Shimane Unit 2, improving annual financial performance by 40 billion yen.

KH NeoChem (4189) is ending the production and sale of certain solvents at the Yokkaichi plant next December.

INPEX (1605) is conducting joint research on geothermal energy with Indonesia's state-owned company.

・Carrit <4275> strengthens the production of small diameter wafers with a consistent system in Nagano.

・Japan Zeon <4205> improves AI physical property predictions through collaboration with experimental data companies.

☆ Schedule of events in the morning session

・08:50 November money stock M3 (October: +0.7% year-on-year).

・Nothing in particular

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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