该公司表示选股的时机已经成熟，大盘与股票表现的相关性处于25年来的最低水平，使其成为“产生阿尔法收益的最佳时期之一”。A strategist from industrial bank stated that the re-inflation policy proposed by president-elect Trump when he takes office next year could push the s&p 500 index to 6,500 points by April, and up to 7,500 points by 2025, with expectations of significant fluctuations in bond yields.
The company's head of u.s. stocks strategy, Manish Kabra, wrote in a report to clients on Monday that the u.s. benchmark index is expected to reach 6,750 by the end of 2025, an increase of about 11% from Friday's closing level of 6,090 points.
The index has become increasingly sensitive to the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield, and the industrial bank believes the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield will be between 3.75% and 4.75%, which drives the s&p 500 index's fluctuation range between 6,500 and 7,500 points.
The company stated that the timing for stock picking has matured, as the correlation between large cap and stocks' performance is at its lowest level in 25 years, making it 'one of the best times to generate alpha returns.'
Given the prevalence of 'american exceptionalism', the recommendation is to focus on 'americentric' themed sectors.
Kabra believes that the more promising prospects lie with the call beneficiaries of the return of u.s. manufacturing, companies with business exposure in the usa and local supply chains.
The industrial bank pointed out that against the backdrop of the tariff war initiated during Trump's first term, industrial firms with local supply chains outperformed those with global supply chains.
