但近两年供需失衡加剧和前期行业泡沫退去后的库存累积风险和批价压力仍需要时间逐步缓解。The liquor industry's historic low valuation is about to be repaired
On December 9, 2024, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee stated that next year, it is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all aspects.
The Pacific Securities Research Report points out that the liquor industry has rationally decelerated, and valuations are at a historically low level. Recovery is imminent. Next year's leading growth targets will generally drop to single digits.
However, it will still take time for the risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure to gradually ease after the imbalance between supply and demand intensified in the past two years and the receding of the industry bubble in the early stages.
With the economic recovery spurred by this round of policies and the stabilization of the bottom of the real estate industry, the liquor industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery.
Industry differentiation has intensified since 2023, but along with the improvement in management level and refinement of channel operations in recent years, excellent wine companies have a stronger sales base and resilience to risks compared to the previous downward cycle. The price of high-end wine determines the brand's position, so the price price is more important and depends on the wine companies' choice of volume price and control of the price.
The lower end needs to pay more attention to channel risks. The high growth brought about by early sales and investment promotion needs to be tested during the downturn, and once the channel collapses and stalls, it is difficult to reverse it.
Real estate wine focuses on the growth momentum of the internal product structure and the market potential within and around the province. The speed of upgrading determines the slope, and the ceiling determines the space.
Leading liquor companies in Hong Kong stocks:
ZJLD Du (06979): Zhenjiu contributed 65% of the company's sales in 2023. After acquiring Zhenjiu in 2009, the company continued to invest resources to expand production, reshape the product matrix, and rebuild the sales network. After a round of rapid growth since 2015, Zhenjiu has now transformed into a leading national soy wine brand that mainly sells subhigh-end and higher-priced products. In 2020-2023, Zhenjiu brand revenue increased from 1.346 billion yuan to 4.583 billion yuan. The CAGR reached 50.46%. As of 2023, Zhenjiu has grown to become the fourth largest soy wine brand in the country. In 2020-2023, Lidu brand revenue increased from 0.359 billion yuan to 1.11 billion yuan, and the CAGR reached 45.63%. Beginning in 2023, we will accelerate production expansion and further enrich the product matrix and improve the price band layout to help Li Du embark on a new journey of nationalization.