国泰君安指出，近期国内裸票价保持同比上升，估算燃油缩减留存过半，反映供需恢复好于预期，预计淡季将同比大幅减亏。考虑近期国际油价下跌将滞后约两个月传导至国内，2025年一季度油价压力将继续改善。预计2025年春运前半段客流集中有助于航司积极收益管理，旺季或展现超预期盈利弹性，催化乐观预期。国信证券指出，近期民航票价同比降幅明显收窄，经营底部已过，我们认为未来民航供需缺口将持续缩小，航司盈利能力将持续修复。Aviation/airlines industry continues its recent upward trend. As of the time of writing, air china limited (00753) is up 4.47% at HKD; china southern airlines (01055) is up 2.84% at HKD 4.34; eastern airlines (00670) is up 2.18% at HKD 2.81; boc aviation (02588) is up 1.29% at HKD 62.6.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the aviation/airlines industry continues its recent upward trend. As of the time of writing, air china limited (00753) is up 4.47% at HKD; china southern airlines (01055) is up 2.84% at HKD 4.34; eastern airlines (00670) is up 2.18% at HKD 2.81; boc aviation (02588) is up 1.29% at HKD 62.6.
According to the flight management data, from November 29 to December 5, domestic ticket prices (excluding rbob gasoline surcharges) increased by 2% week-on-week, compared to -1% in 2023, and -13% compared to 2019; domestic passenger traffic decreased by 2% week-on-week, compared to +10% in 2023 and +4% compared to 2019. Since November, domestic base ticket prices and passenger flow growth have shown signs of stabilization, and this week's drop in base ticket prices has further narrowed.
gtja pointed out that recently domestic base ticket prices have maintained a year-on-year increase, estimating that more than half of the rbob gasoline reduction has been retained, indicating that supply and demand recovery is better than expected, and losses in the off-season are expected to decrease significantly year-on-year. Considering that the recent drop in international oil prices will take about two months to transmit to the domestic market, oil price pressure will continue to improve in the first quarter of 2025. It is expected that the concentration of passenger flow in the first half of the 2025 Spring Festival will help airlines actively manage revenue, and the peak season may exhibit unexpected profit elasticity, catalyzing optimistic expectations. Guosen Securities pointed out that recently, the year-on-year decline in civil aviation ticket prices has significantly narrowed, and the low point of operation has passed; we believe that the future supply-demand gap in civil aviation will continue to shrink, and airline profitability will continuously recover.
