share_log

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント~米CPI発表前に様子見姿勢強まる

Three points to pay attention to in the afternoon session - a wait-and-see attitude strengthens before the U.S. CPI announcement.

Fisco Japan ·  Dec 10 11:30

In the afternoon trading on the 10th, the following three points should be noted.

The Nikkei average continues to rise slightly, with a stronger wait-and-see attitude before the release of the U.S. CPI.

The dollar-yen pair is soft, due to profit-taking sell-offs.

The top contributor to the increase is Tokyo Electron <8035>, and the second is Fanuc Corp <6954>.

The Nikkei average continues to rise slightly, with a stronger wait-and-see attitude before the release of the U.S. CPI.

The Nikkei average continues to rise slightly, ending the morning trade at 39,197.42 yen, up 36.92 yen (+0.09%) from the previous day (estimated volume 0.8 billion 20 million shares).

The U.S. stock market fell on the 9th. The Dow average closed down 240.59 dollars at 44,401.93 dollars, while the Nasdaq was down 123.08 points at 19,736.69. After fluctuating around the previous highs, the market opened mixed. The Dow was initially bought on expectations of additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and China's economic support plans, but it turned lower due to selling pressure from geopolitical risks following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. The Nasdaq also declined, pressured by profit-taking and the drop in semiconductors like nvidia, leading to a decrease in the index. The market expanded its losses towards the end.

Although U.S. stocks fell, the Tokyo market started trading with a slight buying bias due to favorable factors like the weakening yen. The Nikkei average rose to the 39,400 yen range, but after the buying momentum subsided, it faced resistance as seen yesterday, leading to a reduction in gains. In the futures market, trading related to the special settlement value (SQ value) for December futures and options was the main focus, resulting in a lack of directional guidance for the index. There was a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. consumer price index announcement on the 11th.

In the Nikkei 225 constituent stocks, Disco Co., Ltd. <6146> continued to perform well, seen as a result of positive reports from brokerage firms. Sumitomo Metal Mining <5713> was bought due to rising copper prices, and china connect stocks such as shiseido company,limited sponsored adr <4911>, Yaskawa Electric <6506>, TOTO <5332>, and Omron <6645> were bought on expectations of China's economic policies. Additionally, Sony Group Corp <6758>, Marubeni <8002>, and Renesas Electronics <6723> also saw gains.

On the other hand, Rakuten Group <4755>, which had been bought recently, was sold. Additionally, Fujikura <5803>, Furukawa Electric <5801>, and Sumitomo Electric <5802> also saw lackluster performances. The news that the reactivation of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant would be difficult within fiscal year 2024 led to selling in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> and Japan Steel Works <5631>. Furthermore, Hitachi <6501>, Fuji Electric <6504>, Kyowa Kirin <4151>, and Comsys Holdings <1721> also declined.

By industry, iron & steel, wholesale, transportation equipment, electric appliances, and mining sectors rose, while other products, insurance, nonferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and securities & commodity futures sectors fell.

The afternoon session of the Tokyo market seems likely to focus on china stocks. Following expectations regarding china's economic policy, both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index have gradually narrowed their gains. If the upward momentum of china-related stocks weakens, the Nikkei index may enter negative territory compared to the previous day.

If it is a bearish candlestick today, it will be five consecutive days.

■The dollar-yen is weak, due to profit-taking sell.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 10th, the dollar-yen became weak, dropping from 151.54 yen to 151.03 yen. The U.S. 10-year bond yield remained firm, but the dollar saw profit-taking sell due to a reaction from the previous day's strength. Additionally, as the gains in the Nikkei index shrank, risk appetite for selling the yen diminished.

The trading range so far has been: dollar-yen from 151.03 yen to 151.54 yen, euro-yen from 159.47 yen to 159.88 yen, and euro-dollar from 1.0545 dollars to 1.0561 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

New Times Holdings <2776>, Silver Egg Technology <3961>, and three other stocks reached their upper limit.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

The top contributor to the increase is Tokyo Electron <8035>, and the second is Fanuc Corp <6954>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

Japan's M3 money stock for November: +0.7% year-on-year (October: +0.7%).

[Important Person's Remarks]

Prime Minister Ishiba.

The BoJ's monetary policy is not aimed at guiding exchange rates.

A sharp rise in long-term interest rates and sudden fluctuations in exchange rates are undesirable.

It is important to continue to ensure the credibility of currency and government bonds.

Efforts should be made to ensure that confidence in medium- to long-term fiscal policy is not lost.

Nothing special

・Time undetermined China・November exports (year-on-year forecast: +8.7%, October: +12.7%)

・Time undetermined China・November imports (year-on-year forecast: +0.9%, October: -2.3%)

・12:30 Australia Reserve Bank announces policy interest rate (expected to remain at 4.35%)

・16:00 Germany・November consumer price index revised figures (year-on-year forecast: +2.2%, preliminary figure: +2.2%)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment