According to the Zhito Finance APP, Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the old-for-new policy will exit by the end of 2024, but there are expectations for policy continuation in the market. Under normal conditions of policy implementation, demand will be partially front-loaded at the beginning of 2025, and coupled with the relatively early Spring Festival (January 29), based on historical experience, it is expected that the terminal channels will experience inventory replenishment from January to February, with wholesale performance better than retail performance. Before the increase in subsidies in August 2024, overall demand did not meet expectations, and the base is not high. From a macro perspective, domestic demand is expected to improve in 2025, and electric vehicles may continue to benefit. It is estimated that in 2025, wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 15.28 million units, up 26%, with a penetration rate of 53%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points.

In terms of exports, although external policies have some restrictions, the gradually完善 of channels and after-sales service network of Chinese car companies is expected to promote the overall growth of export volume. It is estimated that in 2025, exports will reach 5.58 million units, up 14%. Ultimately, it is expected that narrow passenger vehicle retail will reach 23.51 million units, up 2.5%. With expectations of export growth and inventory replenishment, wholesale will be 29.34 million units, up 7.8%.

November sales continued to show strong performance, with electric vehicles showing continued high growth year-on-year. In November, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.94 million units, up 14% year-on-year and up 8% month-on-month. It is estimated that total retail in November was approximately 2.38 million units, up 25% year-on-year and up 5% month-on-month. In November, wholesale of electric vehicles was 1.44 million units, up 49% year-on-year and up 5% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 49%, which is up 11.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month.

In terms of inventory: November exports were 0.4 million units, down 2% year-on-year and down 14% month-on-month, corresponding to final channel replenishment of 0.17 million units. The historical seasonality shows an additional inventory of 0.15 million units, which is consistent with historical seasonal performance. Based on the calculated data, the total inventory is currently around 2.7 million units, with rbob gasoline vehicle inventory at around 0.9 million units, overall inventory has already fallen below the same period last year.

In terms of pricing: In late November, the industry's discount rate slightly increased month-on-month (mainly for gasoline vehicles), with a discount rate of 5.7%, an increase of 0.1% month-on-month (November 10), up 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year (November 25).

In terms of new energy: In November, wholesale reached 1.44 million units, up 49% year-on-year and up 5% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 48.9%, up 11.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month. Rbob gasoline vehicle sales were up 10% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. Major automakers' new energy sales were as follows: BYD 0.504 million units, Geely 0.122 million units, Wuling 0.104 million units, Changan 0.094 million units, Tesla 0.079 million units, Chery 0.072 million units, Li Auto 0.049 million units, Aion 0.042 million units, Leapmotor 0.04 million units, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock 0.037 million units, Great Wall 0.036 million units, Xiaopeng 0.031 million units, Xiaomi 0.023 million units, Dongfeng 0.022 million units, NIO 0.021 million units.

In November, domestic car manufacturers' wholesale reached 2 million vehicles, +31% year-on-year, +15% month-on-month, with a domestic share of 68%, +8.4 PP year-on-year, -1.9 PP month-on-month.

Outlook for 12M24: After policy intensification in late August, retail performance improved and has continued to date, leading to an upward revision of sales expectations. The annual retail for narrow passenger vehicles is currently estimated at 22.94 million vehicles, +9.6%, and wholesale at 27.21 million vehicles, +5.7%. Retail in Q4 is expected to be +21% year-on-year, with wholesale expected to be +12% year-on-year. Additionally, the share of domestic vehicles and new energy penetration is anticipated to keep increasing, with yearly estimates reaching 66%, +9.1 PP, and 45%, +10.1 PP, respectively.

Investment advice: In November, the automobile market continues to be hot, bullish on sales growth in 12M24 and 2025.

For whole vehicle symbols, recommend Geely Automobile (00175) (Dragon II appears); suggest paying attention to Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. (600418.SH) (luxury brand), Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock (601127.SH). This week, Geely's Galaxy Starship started selling at 0.0998 million yuan, expected to gain strong orders due to pricing exceeding expectations. For parts, the outlook for next year may still see a downward shift in valuation center, with narrowed valuation fluctuation range, but investment opportunities in auto parts EPS growth remain. Focus on leading companies in segments, recommend Xinquan (603179.SH), Haoneng (603809.SH), Topu (601689.SH), Xingyu (601799.SH), Minshi (00425), and Jifeng (603997.SH).

With heavy truck policy pushing and the year-end peak season, November data shows improvement and December is expected to continue upward. Key recommendations include Zhongqi (000951.SZ) and Weichai (000338.SZ), with suggestions to monitor Zhongqi (03808).

Risk warnings: Macroeconomic conditions, domestic consumer spending below expectations, automotive exports below expectations, electric vehicle sales below expectations, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.