The Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 25%. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 17% over that time.
Following the firm bounce in price, Advance Auto Parts' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 59.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Advance Auto Parts could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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Does Growth Match The High P/E?
Advance Auto Parts' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 46%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 92% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 74% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 11% per year, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
In light of this, it's understandable that Advance Auto Parts' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
Shares in Advance Auto Parts have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Advance Auto Parts' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Advance Auto Parts (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us).
If you're unsure about the strength of Advance Auto Parts' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.