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Investing in Guosen Securities (SZSE:002736) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 33% Gain

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 11, 2024 09:32

Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002736) shareholders have seen the share price descend 10% over the month. While that might be a setback, it doesn't negate the nice returns received over the last twelve months. Looking at the full year, the company has easily bested an index fund by gaining 30%.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year Guosen Securities grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 3.0%. This EPS growth is significantly lower than the 30% increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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SZSE:002736 Earnings Per Share Growth December 11th 2024

This free interactive report on Guosen Securities' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Guosen Securities the TSR over the last 1 year was 33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Guosen Securities has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 33% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 1.9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guosen Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Guosen Securities is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

But note: Guosen Securities may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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