考虑到2025年春节较2024年提前，导致部分春节前购车在2024年底完成，且以旧换新的补贴政策在12月进入收尾阶段，部分车企也正通过促销活动冲刺销量，该行预计12月乘用车市场有望保持当前零售持续同比高增的势能。但12月销量冲刺后车市进入消费淡季，需谨慎汽车板块股价表现可能呈现波动。Jinwu Financial News | Auto stock trends diverged. As of press release, NIO (09866) fell 3.16%, Evergrande (00708) fell 2.08%, Xiaopeng (09868) fell 1.17%, and Great Wall Motor (02333) and Ideal Auto (02015) followed suit.
As for GAC Group (02238), which rose 3.11%, BAIC Motor (01958) rose 1.28%, Zero Sports Auto (09863) rose 1.38%, and Geely (00175) rose 1.02%.
According to the news, BOC International released a monthly report on the automobile industry. Passenger car retail sales increased 16.5% year-on-year in November 2024, and its own brands are still strong. In November, the NEV retail penetration rate was 52.3%, surpassing 50% for the fifth month in a row. Export growth slowed in November, and the share of new energy vehicles fell to 20%.
Considering that the 2025 Spring Festival is earlier than 2024, that some car purchases before the Spring Festival were completed at the end of 2024, and that the trade-in subsidy policy came to an end in December, and that some car companies are also sprinting up sales through promotional activities, the bank expects the passenger car market to maintain the current momentum of continuous year-on-year increase in retail sales in December. However, after the sales sprint in December, the car market entered a low consumption season, so we need to be careful that the auto sector's stock price performance may fluctuate.
