市场认为日本央行在12月19日加息25个基点的可能性为27%。On Wednesday, the exchange rate of the yen against the USD fell back from a two-week low, as data showed that wholesale inflation in Japan accelerated, supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike next week. Before the release of inflation data in the USA, the USD remained strong against other major currencies. The inflation data in the USA is highly anticipated by the market as it may provide clues about the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts.
As of 6:08 GMT (14:08 in Peking), the USD fell 0.19% against the yen to 151.685 yen, after rising to 152.18 yen overnight, the highest level since November 27.
In November, Japan's corporate commodity price index (CGPI) rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 3.4%, marking the fastest annual growth rate since July 2023.
The market believes there is a 27% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19.
Bart Wakabayashi, the joint branch manager at State Street in Tokyo, stated: "The data leans toward raising interest rates. Let’s put it this way, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, this is a very defensive position." Wakabayashi said, "We see that the overall economic data in the USA is very strong." He added, "All the factors for initially buying the USD still exist. If asked whether expectations are for 145 or 155 (yen against 1 USD), I think it will reach 155."
The USD index edged up to 106.38 after reaching a one-week high of 106.63 in the previous trading day.
Traders currently believe there is an 85% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18.
Economists expect the overall and core Consumer Price Index in the USA for November to increase by 0.3%, compared to previous increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. James Kniveton, a senior corporate Forex trader at Convera, stated: "If this expectation is realized, the market may worry that the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut rates as quickly as anticipated, which could benefit the USD."
