US inflation is strong. In November, the CPI increased 2.7% year on year higher than the previous value, and the 0.3% month-on-month increase hit a seven-month high. The core CPI remained the same as previous values and expectations year-on-year and month-on-month. The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. The two-year US Treasury yield fell by about 5 basis points to a new low of 4.1%, and the US dollar index fell to a daily decline. Spot gold rose by as much as 1%. However, the market expects interest rate cuts to be suspended in January, and US dollar and US bond yields will then rise. The market will also focus on US PPI inflation for November on Thursday.

Internationally, the market is increasing the ECB's interest rate cut and is expected to cut interest rates by 158 basis points by the end of 2025. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points is in line with expectations. The governor announced that monetary policy no longer needs to be restrictive. He mentioned that Trump's tariff threat has increased uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has risen, and the yield on debt has formed a sharp V-shaped reversal. The Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 100 basis points. It is predicted that the next two meetings will raise interest rates by the same margin, and the Brazilian real will rise by more than 1%.

According to CCTV, the Syrian opposition and Kurdish armed forces reached a cease-fire agreement in northern Syria. Biden said that Trump's intention to impose tariffs was a “major mistake,” and the Biden administration is considering imposing new sanctions on Russian oil trade before Trump takes office.

According to Xinhua News Agency, South Korea's opposition party plans to push for a second vote on the impeachment motion of President Yoon Suk-yook at 5 p.m. on the 14th. After the emergency martial law crisis, South Korea's financial sector was hit one after another. Within three days, the market value of the South Korean stock market evaporated by 58 trillion won, and foreign exchange reserves exceeding 400 billion US dollars were threatened. The net sale of the Korean won was 4.154 percent last month, making it a net sell-off for 4 consecutive months. Korean media said that if financial instability and the real economy stagnates, South Korea may face an economic crisis. The won finally rose 0.25% against the US dollar on Wednesday, and the US-listed ETF EWY rose 2.81%.

On Wednesday, the US CPI was in line with expectations. Investors bought technology stocks and chip stocks, supporting the NASDAQ once rising nearly 1.9% to a record high, rising above the 0.02 million mark for the first time. Tesla and Google A closed up more than 5%, and both hit record closing highs. Apple turned down after hitting a record high. Broadcom cooperated with Apple to develop AI chips, and closed up more than 6.6%:

• The three major US stock indices had mixed ups and downs. The S&P 500 closed up 49.28 points, or 0.82%, to 6084.19 points. The Dow, which is closely related to the economic cycle, closed down 99.27 points, or 0.22%, to 44148.56 points. The NASDAQ, which has the majority of technology stocks, closed up 347.65 points, or 1.77%, to 20034.89 points. The NASDAQ 100 Index closed up 1.85%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of NASDAQ's 100 technology components, closed up 2.51%. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed up 0.48%. The VIX Panic Index closed down 4.23% to 13.58.

• Most ETFs in the US stock industry closed higher. Semiconductor ETFs closed up 2.45%, online stock index ETFs rose more than 2%, global aviation ETFs, optional consumer ETFs, technology industry ETFs, and global technology stock index ETFs rose 1.81%-1.17%, while medical ETFs closed down 1.36%.

• In terms of investment and research strategy, Goldman Sachs CFO said that US President-elect Trump announced the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) chairman candidate, and it is expected that this progress will spawn more mergers and acquisitions.
• The “Seven Sisters of Science and Technology” is generally on the rise. (1) Tesla rose to a record high of about 6%, rising for six consecutive trading days. Musk became the number one person in the world with a net worth of over 400 billion, and many major Wall Street banks raised their target prices. Last week, Bank of America raised Tesla's target price by 14%, and analyst Craig Irwin, who has been bearish on Tesla for a long time, raised the rating to buy and raise the target price by 347%; this week, Morgan Stanley raised the target price by 29% and Goldman Sachs by 38%. The valuation of SpaceX, a space exploration company owned by Musk, jumped to about 350 billion dollars, rising more than 65% in three months. Since the US election day results were announced on November 5, Tesla's stock price has increased by a cumulative total of 69%. (2) Microsoft closed up 1.28% and “dug people” from Google DeepMind to establish an AI health department. The Microsoft AI CEO refuted Altman's claim that the current hardware is not working, AGI is not that fast, and it will take up to 7 years. Microsoft said it will charge about 0.8 billion US dollars in the second fiscal quarter due to its shareholding in the driverless car company Cruise, and it is expected that EPS will have a negative impact of about 9 cents in the second fiscal quarter. (3) Apple launched Siri integrated with ChatGPT on Wednesday. Reports say that Apple is cooperating with Broadcom to develop AI chips and is expected to be mass-produced in 2026. The stock price rose more than 1.2% to a record high, then closed down 0.52%. (4) Google A closed up 5.52%, the best two-day performance since 2015, rising about 11%, to a new all-time high of 195.40 US dollars. (5) Nvidia rose 3.14%. (6) Amazon rose 2.32%. (7) Meta rose 2.16%.

• Chip stocks generally rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.72% to 5027.80 points. Industry ETF SOXX closed up 2.51%. Nvidia doubled down on ETFs, up more than 6.1%. Broadcom rose 6.63%, Lattice Semiconductor rose more than 5.9%, Mywell Technology rose 4.39%, Micron Technology closed 4.03%, Arm Holdings up 4.28%, Qualcomm closed 2.15%, AMD closed 1.89%, TSMC closed up 1.39%, while Wolfspeed closed down 6.64%.

• AI concept stocks had mixed ups and downs. Serve Robotics closed down 9.99%. C3.ai closed down 8.51%, and J.P. Morgan downgraded the rating to the evaluation, saying it was too expensive to enter the AI market. BigBear.ai closed down 4.18%, ultra-microcomputers closed down 5.55%, and SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, closed down 4.75%, while Dell Technology closed up 1.63% and Oracle closed up 0.47%. CrowdStrike closed up 4.67% and Palantir closed up 2.29%.

• Most Chinese securities fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.74% to 7050.77 points, pulling back for the second consecutive trading day. Among ETFs, the FTSE China 3-times longer ETF (YINN) closed down 3.25%, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 1.32%, and the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 0.62%. The FTSE A50 index closed down 0.01% during the night session to 13475.000 points.
• Among popular Chinese securities, JD closed down more than 3.4%, Xiaopeng fell 2.7%, NIO fell 2.1%, Station B and Pinduoduo fell more than 1%, Ali, Tencent, and Ideal fell more than 0.9%, Baidu, New Oriental, Jikrypton, NetEase, and Yum Sheng China closed up nearly 0.8%, while Fangduo rose 11.17%.

• Among other key individual stocks: (1) Macy's closed down 0.84% after falling more than 12.5%. The company lowered its earnings forecast for the fiscal year and found major flaws in internal control. (2) Oreo cookie manufacturer Moniz International's revenue rose 2.22%. The company approved a new 9 billion US dollar share repurchase authorization. Hershey will reject Moniz International's acquisition proposal, believing that the other party's price is too low. (3) Adobe's annual performance guidance fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell more than 5% after the market. (4) US health insurance companies fell sharply. UnitedHealth Group and Cigna fell 5.6%, and CVS Health fell more than 6% to the lowest level since March 2020. Cigna and both parties in the US Senate proposed a bill, or forced health insurance companies to divest the pharmacy business within three years. (5) The leading “retail group stock” game station once rose 12%, unexpectedly turning a loss into a profit in the third quarter.

European stocks closed higher on Wednesday and rebounded after ending eight consecutive trading days of upward momentum on Tuesday. Media stocks led the rise by 1.4%, while retail stocks fell 1.7%, and Zara's parent company Inditex fell nearly 7%:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.28% to 519.95 points. Eurozone STOXX 50 closed up 0.15%. The FTSE Pan-European Merit 300 Index closed up 0.27%.
• Germany's DAX 30 closed up 0.34%. France's CAC 40 closed up 0.39%. Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 0.60%. The Dutch AEX Index closed up 0.30%. The UK FTSE 100 closed up 0.26%. Spain's IBEX 35 closed down 1.47%.

CPI boosted expectations of 25 basis point interest rate cuts. The two-year US Treasury yield once fell by about 5 basis points to 4.1%. The 10-year US Treasury yield once fell more than 2 basis points to a new low, then rose and reached a new high at the end of the session. Two-year German bond yields fell by more than 1 basis point on Wednesday, recovering more than half of lost ground after US CPI data was released:

• US bonds: At the end of the session, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond rose 3.89 basis points to 4.2652%. It dived significantly after the US CPI inflation data was released at 21:30 Beijing time, and then rebounded. The results released at 02:00 showed that 10-year US bond auctions were strong. The bid ratio hit a new high since 2016, and the yield rose to 4.2750% at 03:00. The two-year US Treasury yield rose 1.02 basis points to 4.1532%, and reached 4.1741% on the refresh day (less than a quarter of an hour before the release of the US CPI data). After the data was released, it dived and fell to 4.0969% on the 22:41 refresh day, then gradually rebounded.

• European bonds: At the end of the European market, the yield on German 10-year treasury bonds, the benchmark for the Eurozone, rose 0.5 basis points to 2.127%. The two-year German bond yield fell 1.2 basis points to 1.952%. The yield on UK 10-year treasury bonds fell 0.5 basis points. The two-year British bond yield fell 2.6 basis points. French 10-year Treasury yields rose 1.0 basis points, while Italian 10-year Treasury yields fell 1.7 basis points.

The US dollar rebounded in a V-shape and rose to a two-week high for four consecutive days. The report said that the Bank of Japan thinks there is no harm in waiting to raise interest rates; the yen dived to 153. At one point, the offshore RMB fell by more than 340 points and fell to 7.29 yuan. The Canadian dollar has almost taken back the gains since the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and Bitcoin has risen to 0.1 million dollars:

• US dollar: The US dollar index DXY rose 0.25% to 106.663 points. It reached a low of 106.268 points at 10:56 Beijing time, then reached 106.806 points on the refresh day at 18:11, and once fell back to a level close to 106.3 points after the US CPI data was released at 21:30. The Bloomberg US dollar index rose 0.19% to 1284.81 points. The intraday trading range was 1280.79-1286.85 points.

• Non-US currencies: EUR/USD fell 0.31% to 1.0495; GBP/USD fell 0.16% to 1.2750; USD/CHF rose 0.16% to 0.8842; in commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar fell 0.13% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.26% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.15% against the Canadian dollar.
• Yen: The yen fell 0.34% against the US dollar at the end of the session to 152.47 yen. The previous decline strengthened and surged 151, as data showed that wholesale inflation in Japan is accelerating, supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike next week.
• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): Offshore Renminbi (CNH) fell 212 points against the US dollar at the end of the session to 7.2791 yuan. Overall intraday trading was in the 7.2425-7.2921 yuan range. After A-shares closed, there was a rapid wave of decline. According to the Financial Times, the head of the central bank, there is a solid foundation for maintaining basic stability in the RMB exchange rate.
• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, the largest market capitalization leader, rose 5.44% at the end of the session to $0.102 million. Ethereum, the second-largest, rose 4.70% at the end of the session to $3855.00, and was temporarily unable to break through the $4,000 resistance level.

Yellen claimed that the weakening of the oil market created further opportunities for the US and the West to target Russia. US oil futures closed at $70, but US EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected and were weaker than the previous decline, gasoline and refined oil inventories increased beyond expectations, and OPEC lowered the global oil demand forecast to the biggest extent this year, all limited the rise in oil prices:

• US Oil: WTI crude oil futures for January closed up $1.70, or nearly 2.48%, to $70.29 per barrel, close to the closing level of $71.24 on November 22.
• Oil: Brent crude oil futures for February closed up $1.33, or 1.84%, to $73.52 per barrel, approaching the closing level of $73.62 on December 3 and $74.63 on November 22.

• OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for the fifth month in a row, the biggest drop so far. Analysts believe that OPEC's forecast is still higher than the general expectations of the market, and there is a gap with this year's actual consumption data. According to CCTV, the US media said the Biden administration is considering imposing new sanctions on Russian oil trade. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the crude oil market seems to have good supply, and oil prices are relatively low. If the US and the West take more action against Russia, oil prices may weaken even further.
• Natural gas: US natural gas futures closed up about 6.80% to $3.3780/million British thermal units.

Expectations of interest rate cuts boosted New York futures by 1.3%, reaching $2,750 on the day the US CPI inflation data was released, and spot gold hit a five-week high of $2,720:

• Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 1.29% to $2753.60 per ounce, and rose to $2759.70 at 23:42, and have been rising throughout the day. Spot gold rose 0.89% to $2718.31 per ounce at the end of the session. After the US Treasury disclosed the 10-year bond results at 02:00, it reached a new high of $2721.14.
• Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.15% to $32.795 per ounce. Spot silver remained roughly flat at 31.9030 US dollars/ounce at the end of the session.
• Goldman Sachs believes that even if the dollar appreciates, the price of gold is expected to rise to a record high next year, and central banks may continue to increase their gold holdings. Furthermore, the risk of Trump's tariffs is making waves in the gold and silver market, and the New York futures premium is expanding.

• Industrial Metals in London had mixed ups and downs. London lead closed down more than 1%, while Lun nickel and Ren tin closed higher: Lun copper closed down 24 US dollars to 9192 US dollars/ton. COMEX copper futures fell 0.23% to $4.2620 per pound. Lunlu closed down 8 US dollars to 2,601 US dollars/ton. Lunzine closed down $10 to $3,126 per ton. Lunn lead closed down $22 to $2,043 per tonne. Lunnickel closed higher at $143 to $15,858 per tonne. Renxi closed higher at $181 to $29,957 per ton. Luncobalt closed at 24,300 US dollars/ton.

Here are the updates before 23:30 Beijing time on the 12th 11th

US CPI increased 2.7% year on year and 0.3% month on month in November, the biggest increase in seven months. After the data was released, the probability that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December was almost completely priced. The 2/10-year US Treasury yield hit a new low. The US dollar index fell to 106.3 points, and once rose above 106.6 points after the data was released. Spot gold rose to 2,705 US dollars, and fell to 2,675 US dollars in the Asia-Pacific midday session.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points was in line with expectations. The Governor announced that monetary policy no longer needed to be restrictive. The Trump tariff threat increased uncertainty and cast a shadow over the economic outlook. USD/CAD fell from 1.419 to 1.413, with an overall decline of 0.34% during the day.

On Wednesday, investors bought chip stocks and technology stocks, and the NASDAQ rose more than 1.4% at one point to lead the way:

• The three major US stock indices had mixed ups and downs. The increase in the S&P 500 index extended to more than 0.7%. The Dow, which is closely related to the economic cycle, once fell more than 0.2% or 95 points. The rise of the NASDAQ, which is dominated by technology stocks, extended to over 1.4%.

• Industry ETFs generally rose in the US market. Semiconductor ETFs rose 1.2%, regional bank ETFs, banking ETFs, and online stock index ETFs also rose by at least 1%, while medical ETFs fell more than 0.4%. The S&P Telecom sector rose 1.9%, while the optional consumer sector rose more than 1%.
• The “Seven Sisters of Science and Technology” is generally on the rise. Google A rose more than 4.4% at one point. Meta once rose about 3%, Amazon once rose more than 2.6%, Nvidia rose more than 2.2%, Tesla once rose nearly 2.9%, and the valuation of Musk's space exploration company SpaceX jumped to about 350 billion US dollars, up more than 65% in three months. In the last three months (since closing on September 30), Tesla's stock price has also risen by more than 50%. At one point, Apple rose about 0.9% and continued to hit a record closing high, while Microsoft rose more than 1% at one point.

• Chip stocks generally rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 2.3% at one point. Broadcom once rose more than 6%. Reports say that Apple and Broadcom cooperated to develop AI chips. At one point, Maywell Technology rose by more than 4%, and Micron Technology once rose more than 3.3%.

• AI concept stocks had mixed ups and downs. BigBear.ai once fell more than 12%, and C3.ai once fell more than 12%. J.P. Morgan downgraded the company's rating, saying it was too expensive to enter the AI market. At one point, ultra-microcomputers fell by more than 11%, while BullFrog AI once rose more than 2.3%.

• China Securities generally declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index once fell more than 1.3%. FTSE China triple-long ETF (YINN) once fell by about 4.8%. Among popular Chinese securities, JD once fell more than 4%, Pinduoduo once fell more than 5%, and Kyokrypton once fell more than 4.8%.

The following updates were made before 22:00 Beijing time

On Wednesday, December 11, after the US CPI data was released, US stock index futures rose slightly, gold rallied, and the US dollar fell slightly.

Before the US stock market, most Chinese securities fell. JD fell nearly 3%, Bilibili fell more than 2%, and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 1%. Pinduoduo's US stock fell more than 2% in the premarket.

US stock futures rose slightly in the short term, and the Nasdaq 100 futures increase extended to 0.38%.

The European Stoxx 50 index opened down 0.15%, the German DAX index fell 0.03%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.3%, and the French CAC 40 index fell 0.3%.

The US dollar index declined slightly in the short term and is now at 106.52.

Spot gold rose by about $5 in the short term. The US 10-year Treasury yield declined in the short term and is now 4.240%.

Before the US stock market, most Chinese securities fell. JD fell nearly 3%, Bilibili fell more than 2%, and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 1%.

Before the US stock market, Pinduoduo fell more than 2%.

Spot gold rose by about $5 in the short term. The US 10-year Treasury yield declined in the short term and is now 4.240%.