Short-Selling on the TSX: The Stocks Investors Are Betting Against
Short-Selling on the TSX: The Stocks Investors Are Betting Against
The widely used strategy to make money from stocks is to buy low and sell high. You buy at the lowest price point possible, then unload at a much higher price to maximize profits. However, some investors profit from falling share prices.
從股票中賺錢的廣泛策略是低買高賣。您在儘可能低的價格點買入,然後在更高的價格賣出以最大化利潤。但是,一些投資者是通過股票價格下跌來獲利的。
These people, or so-called short-sellers, have high-risk appetites. Instead of price appreciation, the strategy is to bet against stocks and hope their values drop.
這些人,或稱爲開空者,具有高風險的胃口。與價格升值相反,該策略是押注股票下跌,並希望其價值下降。
A simple guide to short-selling
開空股票的簡單指南
Shorting a stock is the opposite of the "buy low and sell high" principle. You sell first, then buy later. It starts with borrowing a stock you don't own, usually from a brokerage firm. The investor is bearish and believes the price will drop and can be bought at a depressed price. In this transaction, the difference between the sell and buy prices is the profit.
做空股票是"低買高賣"原則的反面。你先賣出,然後再買入。它開始於借入你並不擁有的股票,通常是從券商那裏借入。投資者看淡,認爲價格會下跌,並可以以低價買入。在這筆交易中,賣出和買入價格之間的差額就是利潤。
To illustrate, assume ABC stock trades at $2 then you borrow 100 shares to sell. When the price falls to $1, you buy 100 shares for $100. You return the 100 shares to the lender or brokerage firm and keep the difference, or $100, as profit. Professional traders identify the stock to share before engaging in this high-risk, high-reward strategy.
舉個例子,假設農業銀行股票交易價格爲2美元,那麼你借入100股進行賣出。當價格跌至1美元時,你以100美元買回100股。你將100股歸還給借出方或券商,並將差額,也就是100美元,作爲利潤。專業交易者在參與這種高風險、高收益策略之前,會識別出待分享的股票。
Target No.1
目標編號1
The meme stock phenomenon in 2021 pitted inexperienced investors against short-sellers. BlackBerry Limited (TSX:BB) was among the popular meme stocks in Canada and a target of short-sellers. While the cybersecurity stock is down 15.5% year-to-date, it has risen 22.2% to $3.97 per share in the trailing 30 days.
2021年的迷因股票現象讓經驗不足的投資者與做空者對立。黑莓公司(TSX:BB)是加拿大受歡迎的迷因股票之一,也是做空者的目標。儘管這隻網絡安全概念股票截至目前已下跌15.5%,但在過去30天內,它的股價上漲了22.2%,達到了每股3.97美元。
Market analysts' 12-month average price target is only $3.99 (+0.5%), but their low-price target is $3.15, a potential 26% drop. Short sellers are also speculators; given these forecasts, BlackBerry could be on their radars.
市場分析師的12個月平均價格目標只有3.99美元(+0.5%),但他們的低價目標是3.15美元,可能下降26%。開空者也是投機者;根據這些預測,黑莓可能會成爲他們關注的對象。
On December 10, 2024, the $2.5 billion intelligent security software and services company and TTTech Auto launched its new MotionWise Schedule for QNX Software Development Platform 8.0. The platform aims to accelerate software development for Software Defined Vehicles (SDV).
在2024年12月10日,價值25億的智能安防-半導體軟件和服務公司與TTTech Auto推出了面向QNX軟件開發平台8.0的新MotionWise Schedule。該平台的目標是加速軟件開發,特別是面向軟件定義車輛(SDV)。
However, short-sellers should beware. BlackBerry might have a legitimate growth driver in the evolving automotive landscape. Furthermore, the company is in the process of achieving the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP) High Authorization. The stock could rise if the Joint Authorization Board (JAB) grants the authorization.
然而,做空者應該小心。黑莓可能在不斷髮展的汽車領域中擁有一個合法的增長驅動力。此外,公司正在努力實現聯邦風險與授權管理計劃(FedRAMP)高授權。如果聯合授權委員會(JAB)授予授權,股票可能會上漲。
Target No. 2
目標No. 2
CAE (TSX:CAE) could be ripe for the taking by short-sellers despite its leading position in the aerospace and defence industry. The $10.5 billion company specializes in simulation technologies and training services. At $33.07 per share, the stock is up 15.6% year-to-date.
儘管CAE(TSX:CAE)在航空航天和國防行業處於領先地位,但仍可能成爲做空者的目標。這家價值105億的公司專注於模擬技術和培訓服務。每股33.07美元,年初至今股票上漲了15.6%。
However, CIBC downgraded CAE from outperform to neutral early this month. According to bank analysts, favourable secular tailwinds have yet to reflect in the stock's performance. Market dominance and the record backlog are the positives, while the negatives that could bring the price down include slower pilot training demand.
然而,CIBC在本月初將CAE的評級從表現優於大盤下調爲中立。根據銀行分析師的說法,有利的長期趨勢尚未反映在股票的表現中。市場主導地位和創紀錄的訂單積壓是積極因素,而可能使價格下降的負面因素包括飛行員培訓需求減緩。
In Q2 fiscal 2025 (three months ending September 30, 2024), net income declined 11.2% year-over-year to $52.5 million. Still, its President and CEO Marc Parent, said CAE's future is exceptionally bright, given the $18 billion adjusted backlog.
在2025財年第二季度(截至2024年9月30日的三個月),淨利潤同比下降11.2%,降至5250萬。儘管如此,公司的總裁兼首席執行官Marc Parent表示,考慮到180億的調整後訂單積壓,CAE的未來非常光明。
Risky strategy
高風險股票策略
Short-selling is only for professional traders. While the strategy offers huge profits with proper timing, losses could be enormous if the position falls below the brokerage's minimum capital requirements.
開空僅適用於專業交易者。雖然這種策略在時機合適的情況下提供巨額利潤,但如果頭寸低於券商的最低資本要求,損失可能會非常巨大。