Jinwu Financial News | Catering stocks are gaining strength again. As of press release, Dashi (01405) was up 8.25%, Helens (09869) was up 4.76%, Jiumaojiu (09922) was up 2.83%, Haidilao (06862) was up 2%, and Yum China (09987) was up 1.15%.
According to the news, Chen Ximiao, chief overseas strategy analyst at Cathay Pacific Junan, said that the sensitivity of the Hong Kong stock market to dealing with external shocks is expected to decrease in 2025, and more attention should be paid to returning to one's own logic. The trend of Hong Kong stocks in 2025 is expected to be dominated by an upward pattern of N-shaped fluctuations, and there is no shortage of opportunities for flexibility during this phase. Structures should still be actively sought in 2025. The configuration is mainly based on the weight shift of the barbell strategy towards the two ends. More attention should be paid to the rhythm of configuration, and attention should also be paid to repair opportunities for some domestic products.
According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, domestic consumer demand has continued to be sluggish since 2023, and prices in the catering industry have entered a downward channel. At this point, how will Chinese restaurant companies perform? The experience of Japanese restaurant companies may provide some enlightenment. Although differences in macro and national conditions make China unable to simply replicate the price war of Japanese food and drink and its impact, structurally, the food competition in China's high-tier cities has some similarities with Japan. Research reports suggest that changes in restaurant supply and CPI performance can be used as forward-looking indicators to determine when the current price war will end, while potential policies such as consumer vouchers are expected to spawn food demand and form a phased inflection point. Two main lines are recommended: 1) Mature catering companies focus on same-store sales and valuation improvements brought about by the recovery in CPI, while companies that previously experienced a severe decline in same-store sales have higher performance and flexibility in valuation repair. 2) Growing catering companies pay more attention to the pace of revenue growth and profit release.
