周三公布的CPI报告显示美国核心通胀率连续第四个月保持坚挺，这一连串的数据为明年的物价和利率前景带来了不确定性，尤其是特朗普威胁上台后会提高进口关税。In the USA, the wholesale inflation rate unexpectedly rose in November, with soaring egg prices overshadowing the slowdown in price increases in other categories.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest jump since June, while the median expectation among economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 0.2%. The PPI rose 3% compared to the same month last year, the largest increase since the beginning of 2023.
Excluding food and Energy, the core PPI rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.4% from the same month last year.
The CPI report released on Wednesday showed that the core inflation rate in the USA remained steady for the fourth consecutive month, and this series of data brings uncertainty to next year's price and interest rate outlook, especially after Trump's threat to raise import tariffs if he takes office.
Economists closely monitor the PPI report because several of its sub-data will affect the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which the Federal Reserve focuses on. Medical care costs remained flat, while fees for portfolio management services and airfares both fell.
Although PCE data will not be released before next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, central bank officials will have a good understanding of that data based on the CPI and PPI reports. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, but the pace of rate cuts is expected to slow next year. After the release of the PPI data, economists at the Bank of America expect PCE to grow by 0.1%, the smallest increase in six months.
They wrote in the report, 'If the expectations are correct, we can be a bit more at ease regarding the recent inflation trajectory, and this further strengthens our expectations for a rate cut next week.'
Other data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment claims rose to a two-week high last week. The number of people continuously claiming unemployment benefits also increased during Thanksgiving week.
The PPI report indicated that Commodity prices rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since January. The Statistics Bureau stated that over 80% of the increase was related to food costs. Egg prices increased by 55% month-on-month.
In the PPI report, service costs rose slightly by 0.2%, the lowest in four months. Increases in Commodity prices excluding food and Energy were also similar.
