It is doubtless a positive to see that the Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd (SHSE:601155) share price has gained some 43% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 63% after a long stretch. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. But it could be that the fall was overdone.
While the last five years has been tough for Seazen Holdings shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over five years Seazen Holdings' earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
This free interactive report on Seazen Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Seazen Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Seazen Holdings' TSR, which was a 59% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Seazen Holdings provided a TSR of 15% over the year. That's fairly close to the broader market return. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 10%, which was endured over half a decade. We're pretty skeptical of turnaround stories, but it's good to see the recent share price recovery. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Seazen Holdings you should be aware of.
We will like Seazen Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
