① Canada is studying the imposition of taxes on exports to the USA in response to Trump's potential trade war, including Uranium, Crude Oil Product, and potash; ② The Canadian government may first implement retaliatory tariffs and export controls, reserving taxes as a last resort; ③ If the USA only exempts Energy products, this situation may also prompt Canada to use export taxes.
According to sources, Canada is currently researching the imposition of export taxes on its main exports to the USA, including Uranium, Crude Oil Product, and potash, to respond to the potential trade war that President-elect Trump may start.
Affected by this news, US Uranium mining concept stocks fell broadly, with Uranium Energy down 3%, Nexgen Energy down 4%, CCJ down about 3%, and Oklo down 3.3%.
According to officials discussing within the Canadian government, the imposition of export taxes will be Canada's last resort. However, imposing retaliatory tariffs on American-made products and implementing export controls on certain Canadian products is more likely to be enacted first.
However, these officials stated that if Trump decides to launch a full-scale trade war, imposing Commodity export taxes in Canada is a realistic option. The Trudeau government may also propose expanding powers for export controls.
Currently, Canada is the largest external supplier of Crude Oil Product to the USA, especially for refineries in the US Midwest, which heavily rely on cheap Canadian heavy crude oil, with almost no other options; rising costs will have a particularly severe impact on these regions.
Canada's Uranium is also the largest foreign source of fuel for US Nuclear Power plants, while potash from Canada's western provinces is an important source of fertilizer for American farms. Meanwhile, the US Department of Defense has been investing in Canadian mining projects to secure sources of cobalt and graphite.
It is reported that Canada provides about a quarter of the Uranium needed for US nuclear reactors, with most of this material coming from high-grade Uranium mines in Saskatchewan. The US nuclear reactors heavily depend on imported Uranium as there is almost no domestic production of this material.
For these reasons, some observers indicate that due to the importance of these resources, Trump may not impose tariffs on these commodities to avoid impacting the USA's own economy. The USA may be more inclined to impose tariffs on Canada's manufacturing sector, where Canada's Autos, aerospace, and Aluminum industries are concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, which are the two most populous provinces, accounting for about 60% of the total population.
Canadian officials stated that if Trump only exempts Energy products while attacking all other Canadian Products, the Trudeau government will have no choice but to respond. They added that such a scenario might prompt Canada to use export taxes.
A spokesperson for Canada's Fertilizer Industrial Conglomerates expressed that export restrictions are a bad idea. "As fertilizers play a crucial role in food security, we consider them a humanitarian product, thus should not be subject to trade restrictions."
Trudeau has publicly stated that if Trump imposes a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada, it would severely hurt Canada's economy.
Additionally, the Bank of Canada significantly cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week, not only to boost economic growth but also in preparation for Trump's potential tariffs. The central bank emphasized that Trump's new administration might impose tariffs on Canadian export products, which poses "a new significant uncertainty."